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What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - Ted King - 09-30-2010
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Nate Silver has a very strong track record of judging the likelihood of the outcome of elections as they stand at any given day. For this thread, I'd like to assume that he is correct that the Republicans will be a majority in the House and Democrats will maintain a majority of the Senate. If that is indeed the outcome come election day, what do you think will most likely happen in the following year? Please note that I am not asking what you'd like to happen, but what do you think are some of the things most likely to happen?
Here's a couple of things I think will happen. Republicans in the House will try to force a government shutdown (maybe more than once). Many House Republican committee (and subcommittee) chairs will launch a very large number of investigations of the White House.
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - swampy - 09-30-2010
I don't know about the following year, but I think the lame duck Congress will try to pass every piece of progressive/liberal legislation they can while they still have the majority.
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - Mac1337 - 09-30-2010
I suspect Republicans might have won the election in September. No telling what will happen in the "next" election.
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - michaelb - 09-30-2010
To me, the really remarkable aspect of the last 2 yrs is that it has been possibly the most productive democratic government in generations. For all the bungling and chaos and problems, they passed more stuff, and big stuff, into law then could have been imagined possible. Republicans are remarkedly effective and unified in legislating; the Dems, remarkably ineffective, except for these past 2 yrs.
A split in congress takes us back most likely to where we were before, mostly incapable of addressing the real problems facing this country. Republicans are most effective when they advance wedge issue bills that peel off significant numbers of Dems. But those are usually compromise bills. I haven't added up if the tea party numbers will even make a difference, but to the extent the Repubs more far right, they will be less likely to agree on stuff that is likely to draw conservative dems, so they may be less effective than in the past.
Tax cuts are a good example. You would think that is what they will push, and if done sensibly, they could certainly pull in Dems and even the white house. But how will the deficit hawks coming in feel about that?
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - Seacrest - 09-30-2010
The nineties all over again.
Except I won't have hair, yet still have to suffer through an encore of "Limp Bizkit".
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - OWC Jamie - 09-30-2010
Guantanamo will close.
Someone will hope the GOP repeats the 1995 mistakes of cutting funding from bills and shutting down government.
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - Mac1337 - 09-30-2010
michaelb wrote:
To me, the really remarkable aspect of the last 2 yrs is that it has been possibly the most productive democratic government in generations.
Exhibit A for what an out of touch person looks like. In your imaginary world the people clamored for "more stuff" and "big stuff". There is just one problem. They don't want them. And for good reason. Data is coming from all over the country. Healthcare premiums are rocketing up. Up to 12.5%. You took a system that had a satisfaction rating of 85% and "reformed" it under the false pretense of "bending" the cost curve.
Why are you surprised?
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - Acer - 09-30-2010
Healthcare premiums are rocketing up. Up to 12.5%
Dude. They've been rocketing up for YEARS. Why do you think there was any momentum behind reform at all?
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - BCam - 09-30-2010
If the Democrats retain control of both houses of Congress, it could be a lot more contentious and "down your throat" by Democrats.
If Republicans win one or both Houses, you will see the mirror image of what we've seen in the last two years, "NO"! from the Democrats.
The outcome will really end up on the desk of President Obama. If Democrats lose control of both Houses, his survival will either hinge on compromises with Republicans (and we've seen how that goes), or he will finally embrace the "change" he got elected on in 2008 and name names regarding who is really behind legislation and why. Think of it as "Joe Friday Goes to Washington". Just the facts, ma'am. Just the facts.
Rahm Emmanual will be gone, and if he's smart, Obama will get a tough as nails CoS who has a ton of experience being a take no prisoners prosecutor. Be prepared, we might well witness one of the toughest periods of American Politics ever.
Re: What do you think is likely to happen after the midterm elections? - Mac1337 - 09-30-2010
So you just spent a year worth of this country's time, neglected job creation, created 300+ bureaucratic bodies and committed the nation to a trillion dollars of extra spending just to stay on the same curve, and then lied about it? This shall not be forgotten.