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+--- Thread: Battleground state polling patterns... (/showthread.php?tid=193964)
Battleground state polling patterns... - Ted King - 08-13-2016
...or... Trump gaps:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/four-takeaways-latest-battleground-polls-n629536
There's the education gap and the gender gap but there's also an urban-rural gap:
Iowa (Iowa is close to even in the overall polling)
Eastern Cities: Clinton 45%, Trump 31% (D+14)
East Central: Clinton 47%, Trump 33% (D+14)
Des Moines Area: Clinton 44%, Trump 30% (D+14)
Central: Trump 46%, Clinton 34% (R+12)
West: Trump 51%, Clinton 31% (R+20)
Pennsylvania (Clinton has a double digit lead in Penn.)
Philadelphia: Clinton 71%, Trump 19% (D+52)
Philly burbs: Clinton 52%, Trump 26% (D+26)
Northeast: Clinton 42%, Trump 41% (D+1)
Central: Trump 53%, Clinton 31% (R+22)
West: Clinton 53%, Trump 36% (D+17)
What that doesn't show is the percent of the total number of voters live in each of those areas, so this data needs to be combined with total voter in each area data to get a more complete picture. But this shows the urban-rural divide really well - the areas with high percents for Trump are all rural and the areas where Clinton does well are urban and suburban.
And in some places there is a significant Party Unity Gap:
Ohio
Among Democrats: Clinton 87%, Trump 5% (D+82)
GOP: Trump 83%, Clinton 5% (R+78)
Pennsylvania
Among Democrats: Clinton 91%, Trump 5% (D+86)
Among Republicans: Trump 77%, Clinton 7% (R+70)
In Ohio not so much of a party unity gap but in Pennsylvania there is - which may account for some of the difference in general polling numbers in those states - with Ohio a tossup and Pennsylvania in double digit lead range (at the moment) for Clinton.
There is probably some overlap between gaps; e.g., the larger party unity gap in Pennsylvania compared to Ohio may be due to the education gap (Pennsylvania has a significantly higher percent of college grads than Ohio).
Re: Battleground state polling patterns... - Ted King - 08-13-2016
More on the urban-rural political divide here if you are interested:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/urban-resurgence-is-a-double-edged-sword-for-democrats/
Re: Battleground state polling patterns... - Dennis S - 08-13-2016
Any results on a sanity gap?
Re: Battleground state polling patterns... - gabester - 08-14-2016
Dennis S wrote:
Any results on a sanity gap?
Welp, yer sanity ain't no mind when yer jobs'r taken away by sum feriner, and you ain't got nohow noway ta put food on der table.
This divide is more between affluent, upper middle class, educated people and those who have not had so much academic opportunity afforded them, particularly the white plurality that keeps paying out for past and current transgressions of the patriarchy. The former and urban minorities have benefitted most from the American way of liberalism and righting past injustices under our rule of law, striving for that more perfect union, and those latter who have been left behind have a grudge to bear and a reality TV culture infused with gun violence and second amendment rights.
We should all be afraid, very afraid, of the chaos days to come. I just can't understand who amongst the wealthy elite truly stands to gain from "culture wars" writ large and culminating in civil war.
Here's a couple scary scenarios:
1) Clinton wins but Trump refuses to accept that and demagogues his way into inciting his followers to take arms in revolt. Outcome won't be pretty, esp. since a meaningful portion of police and military would seem to fall into the camp that might be swayed by this manifest idiocracy.
2) Trump wins in an obvious Russian hack of our voting systems. Similar outcome when the Obama administration at the behest of intelligence agencies annuls the election results, Trump eggs on an insurrection and the DoD is forced to put it down.
Let's just hope these fools are no more effective in their revolt than Cliven Bundy and his friends overrunning the bird santuary. But if they go for critical infrastructure - power or water systems... it'll get ugly really quick because our urban areas are pretty vulnerable despite nearly two decades of "homeland security" defense buildup.