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+--- Thread: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week (/showthread.php?tid=255347)
Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Lemon Drop - 04-26-2021
Young folks moving South for jobs and cheaper housing are a driving force in the shifts we are about to have documented.
https://apnews.com/article/health-census-2020-business-government-and-politics-immigration-cbc10b35e47a331515cce18abc9dcddc
Excerpts from this good AP story
Most projections have Texas gaining three seats, Florida two and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon one each. Expected to lose seats are Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia — and California.
The relocations have reshuffled politics. Once solidly conservative places such as Texas have seen increasingly large islands of liberalism sprout in their cities, driven by the migration of younger adults, who lean Democratic. Since 2010, the 20-34-year-old population has increased by 24% in San Antonio, 22% in Austin and 19% in Houston, according to an Associated Press analysis of American Community Survey data. In November’s election, two states that also saw sharp growth in young people in their largest cities — Arizona and Georgia — flipped Democratic in the presidential contest.
,,,
These demographic winners are almost all in the Sun Belt, but climate is not the only thing they have in common.
There are other drivers of population growth, such as immigration from overseas and childbirths. But as foreign immigration tapered off during the decade, then plummeted during the pandemic, internal relocations have become an increasingly big factor in how the country is re-sorting
“Since the last housing crisis, young millennials have had to move to places with really strong job markets,” Fairweather said. “Now, during the pandemic I think that is changing — you don’t have to move to San Francisco if you want a job in tech.”
Plenty of young people still move to traditional destinations such as New York and California to start careers, experts say. They just leave them relatively quickly now, with a wider variety of alternative job centers to choose from. “Every year these places attract a lot of young people, but they lose more,” William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institute, said of traditional, coastal job magnets, joking that his own hometown of Washington, D.C. “rents” ...
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - cbelt3 - 04-26-2021
Gerrymandering in 3-2-1.... GO !
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Sam3 - 04-26-2021
cbelt3 wrote:
Gerrymandering in 3-2-1.... GO !
That's right! Can't have those Commie Librul youngun's takin' away our freedumbs!
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Lemon Drop - 04-26-2021
cbelt3 wrote:
Gerrymandering in 3-2-1.... GO !
There will be some big redistricting battles, no doubt. Dems can make this work for them.
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Sam3 - 04-26-2021
Lemon Drop wrote:
[quote=cbelt3]
Gerrymandering in 3-2-1.... GO !
There will be some big redistricting battles, no doubt. Dems can make this work for them.
How? Republicans control the legislature and the executive.
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Lemon Drop - 04-26-2021
Sam3 wrote:
[quote=Lemon Drop]
[quote=cbelt3]
Gerrymandering in 3-2-1.... GO !
There will be some big redistricting battles, no doubt. Dems can make this work for them.
How? Republicans control the legislature and the executive.
Do you mean in a particular state?
Florida and Texas will be the big battlegrounds but it is not a slam dunk for the red team. It matters who the newcomers are. Younger people and people of color and more diversity in the suburbs are driving this, and those voters lean strongly Dem. Young voters in particular are turned off by GOP politics and are more likely to change the politics of where they live, as they have in places like Colorado.
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Sam3 - 04-26-2021
Lemon Drop wrote:
[quote=Sam3]
[quote=Lemon Drop]
[quote=cbelt3]
Gerrymandering in 3-2-1.... GO !
There will be some big redistricting battles, no doubt. Dems can make this work for them.
How? Republicans control the legislature and the executive.
Do you mean in a particular state?
Florida and Texas will be the big battlegrounds but it is not a slam dunk for the red team. It matters who the newcomers are. Younger people and people of color and more diversity in the suburbs are driving this, and those voters lean strongly Dem. Young voters in particular are turned off by GOP politics and are more likely to change the politics of where they live, as they have in places like Colorado.
You said that Dems can make it work for them, I don't see how, given that the Republicans hold a Texas government trifecta. They will be in charge of redistricting and will be able to severely gerrymander the state to completely exclude the younger, more liberal northern state immigrants from representation.
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Acer - 04-26-2021
Gerrymandering does have an upper limit. Eventually the majority catches on and starts pushing back. Ballot initiatives in several states, including Michigan, have taken redistricting away from the legislatures. Those snake-like gerrymander maps look really damning on opposition election material.
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - deckeda - 04-26-2021
To the extent courts can “help,” gerrymandering has become a publicly-known phenomena. It’s more likely today that unfairness gets looked at, which is a start.
Re: Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week - Filliam H. Muffman - 04-26-2021
LD, your previous post is very relevant...
Florida sheriff does voter intimidation right out in the open
https://forums.macresource.com/read.php?2,2623369