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The next variant - PeterB - 03-03-2022
An interesting article just published -- suggests that it may already be present, in the tissues of an immunocompromised person who is currently infected...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27881-6
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28446-x
https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2022/3/2/22958093/new-covid-19-variants-infected-coronavirus
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220301131121.htm
Background:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00510-y
https://fortune.com/2022/03/01/summer-2022-covid-epidemiologists/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/scientists-plead-caution-covid-restrictions-lifted-england
... the general consensus is that we're likely to see it in the next 3-4 months, and that it's NOT likely to be mild.
Also, published data suggesting that the additional spate of mutations we've seen in Omicron was indeed the result of persistent infection in an immunocompromised person:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4014499
https://www.science.org/content/article/uk-variant-puts-spotlight-immunocompromised-patients-role-covid-19-pandemic
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26884-7
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03291-y
... and yep, the virus is already cooking:
https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/how-contagious-is-stealth-omicron-covid-subvariant-immunity/
https://www.news24.com/health24/medical/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/two-patients-develop-rare-covid-19-co-infection-with-delta-and-omicron-variants-20220221-2
... and meanwhile, mask mandates are being lifted almost everywhere. Maybe not quite time to do that just yet...? Here's what a Rabbi has to say about it: https://jewishstandard.timesofisrael.com/it-is-not-yet-time-to-unmask/ ... he raises some interesting and important points.
In my own city, Mardi Gras was full of people from all over the country who were mostly not wearing masks. The claim from Jennifer Avegno, our health commissioner, is that we won't see a post-MG surge... I'm not so sure-- all it takes is for one person who's infected to develop a new variant and transmit it to someone else. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/us/mardi-gras-returns-new-orleans.html
Re: The next variant - Filliam H. Muffman - 03-03-2022
How about the man infected with a deer-specific version of Covid19 (human > deer > deer variant > human)? There are a few dozen types of animals for this to happen with, not even including swine flu. I guess that's one aspect of it becoming endemic.
Re: The next variant - PeterB - 03-03-2022
Filliam H. Muffman wrote:
How about the man infected with a deer-specific version of Covid19 (human > deer > deer variant > human)? There are a few dozen types of animals for this to happen with, not even including swine flu. I guess that's one aspect of it becoming endemic.
To my knowledge, no one has been definitively infected with a deer-specific version of SARS-CoV-2 ... if you have a source, please cite it.
Animal -> human transmission is definitely a concern, just as it is for the flu ... the difference being that a number of animal species don't seem to get as sick as humans do when they get the virus, and also there's the question of whether those animal species are coming into close contact with humans. Here's the CDC's take on it:
https://www.cdc.gov/healthypets/covid-19/wildlife.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html
Re: The next variant - Ombligo - 03-03-2022
Give up on getting everyone to wear masks again, it is not going to happen. That has become too political and many of those who wore them will not wear them again. All you can do is protect yourself the best you can.
Re: The next variant - Filliam H. Muffman - 03-04-2022
PeterB wrote:
[quote=Filliam H. Muffman]
How about the man infected with a deer-specific version of Covid19 (human > deer > deer variant > human)? There are a few dozen types of animals for this to happen with, not even including swine flu. I guess that's one aspect of it becoming endemic.
To my knowledge, no one has been definitively infected with a deer-specific version of SARS-CoV-2 ... if you have a source, please cite it.
Animal -> human transmission is definitely a concern, just as it is for the flu ... the difference being that a number of animal species don't seem to get as sick as humans do when they get the virus, and also there's the question of whether those animal species are coming into close contact with humans. Here's the CDC's take on it:
https://www.cdc.gov/healthypets/covid-19/wildlife.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html
I guess it hasn't been proven to be the same alternate strain.
https: //www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/health/coronavirus-variant-deer-ontario.html
Re: The next variant - Don C - 03-04-2022
I have been hoping to restart my English country dance group in April. With mask mandates removed this week, three or four weeks should tell us if there is a resulting surge.
But that theory does not take into account a new variant! Of course, I have known that a new variant is possible, but boy did I have hopes!
Re: The next variant - mattkime - 03-04-2022
There will always be a new variant, its just a matter of whether it has a significant impact on the infection rate.
Re: The next variant - PeterB - 03-04-2022
Ombligo wrote:
Give up on getting everyone to wear masks again, it is not going to happen. That has become too political and many of those who wore them will not wear them again. All you can do is protect yourself the best you can.
Never say never. I would think that a new variant, with, say, a 95% mortality rate, will do the trick!
Filliam H. Muffman wrote:
[quote=PeterB]
[quote=Filliam H. Muffman]
How about the man infected with a deer-specific version of Covid19 (human > deer > deer variant > human)? There are a few dozen types of animals for this to happen with, not even including swine flu. I guess that's one aspect of it becoming endemic.
To my knowledge, no one has been definitively infected with a deer-specific version of SARS-CoV-2 ... if you have a source, please cite it.
Animal -> human transmission is definitely a concern, just as it is for the flu ... the difference being that a number of animal species don't seem to get as sick as humans do when they get the virus, and also there's the question of whether those animal species are coming into close contact with humans. Here's the CDC's take on it:
https://www.cdc.gov/healthypets/covid-19/wildlife.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html
I guess it hasn't been proven to be the same alternate strain.
https: //www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/health/coronavirus-variant-deer-ontario.html
From that article, it sounds likely that the transmission might have been from close contact with the deer -- a hunter wasn't being careful and/or wasn't aware that the deer may carry corona. The likelihood of this happening is pretty slim, but it's true that if a person picks up a novel variant from the deer and IF that variant is more contagious/infectious/deadly than the current strains, that could be a major problem.
Don C wrote:
I have been hoping to restart my English country dance group in April. With mask mandates removed this week, three or four weeks should tell us if there is a resulting surge.
But that theory does not take into account a new variant! Of course, I have known that a new variant is possible, but boy did I have hopes!
Do I think a new variant is likely? Maybe... the question is how the variant compares to the known ones. I think-- at least for New Orleans-- we'll know in, perhaps 2-3 weeks... the problem is that most of the schools here were out for Mardi Gras, and all the students come back this coming week... will be interesting if the schools continue to mandate masking indoors, and what the effect will be of having all these people coming back into contact with each other, when presumably they were all exposed to all sorts of things and people from other locations during MG.
mattkime wrote:
There will always be a new variant, its just a matter of whether it has a significant impact on the infection rate.
See above. It's not just the infection rate; it's also whether the current vaccines are effective both at preventing transmission and serious disease.
Re: The next variant - Lemon Drop - 03-04-2022
mattkime wrote:
There will always be a new variant, its just a matter of whether it has a significant impact on the infection rate.
Yep, like influenza. It's with us forever and will always mutate.
Re: The next variant - Racer X - 03-05-2022
mattkime wrote:
There will always be a new variant, its just a matter of whether it has a significant impact on the infection rate.
Absolutely. We play whack-a-mole with the flu every year. Some years its mild, some years its ugly, sometimes they nail the vaccine, other years they guess wrong.