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+--- Thread: "Businessweek" Analysis: Consumers may sit out first round of next-gen DVDs (/showthread.php?tid=8034)
"Businessweek" Analysis: Consumers may sit out first round of next-gen DVDs - GeneL - 03-27-2006
Ready to buy a "Next Gen" optical drive?
Here's an interesting article from "Businessweek"
MARCH 27, 2006
Technology
By Cliff Edwards
Next-Gen DVDs' Blurry Picture
The battle between Blu-ray and HD-DVD was already tricky for consumers. But new content protection may mean buyers get even less than they might have hoped.
After years of waiting, the new era of high-definition home theater has finally arrived. In April, Toshiba (TOSBF) plans to introduce HD-DVD, its high-definition successor to the DVD player, two months ahead of rival consumer-electronics companies who plan to sell a competing format called Blu-ray Disc.
Electronics makers hope the new gear will keep sales in the $120 billion industry humming, while Hollywood hopes the lure of interactive features and crystal-clear pictures five times the resolution of current DVDs will jump-start slumping home-video sales.
"IT'S CRAZY." Here's the problem: Both camps are shooting themselves in the foot before they get to the starting line. Consumers already were faced with the prospect of mass confusion, thanks to two next-generation DVD formats, whose disks do not work in each other's machines but look essentially the same. Remember Betamax versus VHS? At least then you could tell one tape from the other.
But that's just the tip of the iceberg. Turns out, most of the 20 million high-definition TVs sold over the past three years aren't capable of displaying the disks in their full resolution. Worse, at least one major studio intends to downgrade the picture even more unless consumers hook their players up through a special, pricey cable aimed at preventing piracy.
"It's crazy," says chief analyst Richard Doherty of consumer-research firm Envisioneering. "The sticker on your new player promises the equivalent of a high-performance car, but the fine print says you may be buying an Edsel instead."
OPTING OUT. The new content-protection scheme would be the first time customers who have no intention of breaking copyright laws would be penalized because of piracy concerns. Current DVD releases like Batman Begins and Walk The Line include software to prevent unauthorized duplication, but still play normally.
New software included on both Blu-ray and HD-DVD releases, however, will automatically slash the picture quality in half, unless consumers have a relatively new connector and cable called HDMI to hook up players to their televisions. Only one in 20 HD sets sold to early adopters over the past few years has the right version of the connector. Only 15% of new sets sold this year will include it, and deliver the full 1080 resolution capable of showing such detail. "What do you have then? A very expensive DVD player," says Sony Senior Vice-President Tim Baxter.
To make matters more confusing, Sony and other consumer-electronics companies are adding features to the next-generation players that then may "upconvert," -- boost the image quality -- so the same disk may look vastly different, depending on which machine you purchase and the size of the television (see BW Online, 3/27/06, "Sony's Renaissance Geek"). Hoping to avoid such a scenario, four major studios -- Sony Pictures (SNE), 20th Century Fox (NWS), Disney (DIS), and Paramount (VIA) say they initially will not use the new copy protection on the first disks sold this year.
BETTING ON GAMES. Universal execs told BusinessWeek on Mar. 21 that they, too, will not use the copy protection. Execs at Warner Brothers declined to comment, but sources with knowledge of the studio's plans say "at least some" of the 20 releases planned through April will use the software.
The confusion may be just enough for consumers to say good night, and good luck. Already, a growing number of so-called technology influencers and Web sites are recommending sitting out the first round of the new DVD wars.
Many believe the best bet for either format to gain acceptance now lies with next-generation game consoles. Sony plans a November worldwide release of its new PlayStation 3, which will include a Blu-ray player. Execs at Sony hope by then that enough new HD sets will be sold, with the right connectors, to make the player worthwhile. And Microsoft (MSFT) has said it may add an HD-DVD player to its Xbox 360 in coming months. Until then, the crystal ball for crystal-clear movies remains fuzzy.
Edwards is a correspondent in BusinessWeek's Silicon Valley bureau
Precious says, "I hope this means something to somebody!"
Re: "Businessweek" Analysis: Consumers may sit out first round of next-gen DVDs - ka jowct - 03-27-2006
Anyone who buys into this deserves to be reamed.
Of course the content providers are hoping you'll replace your current collection with more expensive, über-copy-protected discs, as well as buy an HD TV and Hi-def player. I hope they do shoot themselves in the collective foot. Or better yet, in the head.
Re: "Businessweek" Analysis: Consumers may sit out first round of next-gen DVDs - spearmint - 03-27-2006
Aren't DVDs Hi Def now? I do not have an HDTV now so I would not know.
Re: "Businessweek" Analysis: Consumers may sit out first round of next-gen DVDs - Seacrest - 03-27-2006
People will eventually want Hi-Def content for their HDTVs, however, they are not going to stand for a) yet another format war, b) more DRM, c) having to pay MORE for all this.
The entertainment and consumer electronics cartels would be wise to remember things like laserdiscs, Super Audio CDs, DAT, DVD-Audio, and of course, Betamax.
(All this may have been covered in the article, but I haven't read it yet.)
Re: "Businessweek" Analysis: Consumers may sit out first round of next-gen DVDs - samintx - 03-27-2006
As long as I can see color and movement on my 14" screen that is fine with me. I grew up watching "snow" on the black and white screen so I ain't particular.
Re: "Businessweek" Analysis: Consumers may sit out first round of next-gen DVDs - Seacrest - 03-28-2006
spearmint Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Aren't DVDs Hi Def now? I do not have an HDTV now
> so I would not know.
Current DVDs have a maximum horizontal resolution of 480 lines or pixels. Hi Def content has the potential for from 720 interlaced horizontal pixels all the way to 1080 progressive pixels.
How the heck *I* am ever going to tell the diff is anybody's guess. DVDs look fine to me now.