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Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - Printable Version

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Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - Ted King - 10-14-2009

http://www.insidescience.org/research/computers_faster_only_for_75_more_years

With the speed of computers so regularly seeing dramatic increases in their processing speed, it seems that it shouldn't be too long before the machines become infinitely fast -- except they can't.

A pair of physicists has shown that computers have a speed limit as unbreakable as the speed of light. If processors continue to accelerate as they have in the past, we'll hit the wall of faster processing in less than a century.

Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted 40 years ago that manufacturers could double computing speed every two years or so by cramming ever-tinier transistors on a chip. His prediction became known as Moore's Law, and it has held true throughout the evolution of computers -- the fastest processor today beats out a ten-year-old competitor by a factor of about 30.

If components are to continue shrinking, physicists must eventually code bits of information onto ever smaller particles. Smaller means faster in the microelectronic world, but physicists Lev Levitin and Tommaso Toffoli at Boston University in Massachusetts, have slapped a speed limit on computing, no matter how small the components get.

"If we believe in Moore's laW ... then it would take about 75 to 80 years to achieve this quantum limit," Levitin said.

"No system can overcome that limit. It doesn't depend on the physical nature of the system or how it's implemented, what algorithm you use for computation … any choice of hardware and software," Levitin said. "This bound poses an absolute law of nature, just like the speed of light."



Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - mikebw - 10-14-2009

Hence the widespread adoption of parallel computing.


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - RgrF - 10-14-2009

Had they said 15 years, I'd be concerned.


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - testcase - 10-14-2009

Then why have reliable chips stalled around the 3GHz speed for over a year now?


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - Numo - 10-14-2009

Look at the bright side - once you have the fastest possible computer, you'll never have to upgrade again.Rolleyes


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - Filliam H. Muffman - 10-14-2009

testcase wrote:
Then why have reliable chips stalled around the 3GHz speed for over a year now?

It has been a lot more than a year. The power-hungry/inefficient/leaky Pentium 4 hit 3.2 GHz in June 2003 then crept up to 3.6 GHz in October 2004 after a process shrink, and finally 3.8 GHz in November 2004.

A big part of the lack of speed increase is that they do not have to. AMD did a bit of a faceplant not being able to get their re-engineered 65 nm processors out as expected. AMD almost passed Intel because of them changing horses from the P4 to Pentium-M/Core/Core2.


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - sekker - 10-14-2009

This is assuming we stay 2D for our chips.

When we can make CPUs that operate via 3D - like the human brain - then the speed limit they assign will be pushed aside for another century or two.

At some point, the real throughput bottleneck is going to come from software, not hardware. We might even be there already.


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - Seacrest - 10-14-2009

On August 29, 1997 Skynet became self-aware.
It's been over 12 years since then, and the machines have yet to actually rise up against us, so I find this news a bit underwhelming.


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - davester - 10-14-2009

We'll all be dead in 75 years so what possible relevance does this have (unless we all have our brains uploaded into computers, in which case this might have more than a passing interest).


Re: Computers Faster Only for 75 More Years - MacDoxy - 10-14-2009

go brain uploads! yeah- then we can thaw out walt disney...
hmm, maybe not.