In other virus news

[freeradical]

Ammo wrote:


Maybe even worse is the fact that those same people can transmit the virus while they are non-symptomatic.

This is also true of the flu. In fact, from what I understand, a person who is infected with the flu is most contagious in the 24 hours prior to showing any symptoms.

[Filliam H. Muffman]

sekker wrote:
It’s serious because infected people can show no symptoms for a week or more.

Hard to lock things down when those infected don’t even know it.

And the MD who blew the whistle in China died today. It can kill even the healthiest of people (in this case, a 34 year old male IN a hospital).

BBC: On 30 December [Li Wenliang] sent a message to fellow doctors in a chat group warning them to wear protective clothing to avoid infection.

Four days later he was summoned to the Public Security Bureau where he was told to sign a letter. In the letter he was accused of "making false comments" that had "severely disturbed the social order".

Is it ironic if all the party thugs that made him sign the letter, end up dying of the disease he tried to warn them about...

freeradical wrote:
The CDC estimates that so far, 10,000-25,000 Americans have died of the flu in the 2019-2020 flu season.

That's with vaccines providing limited herd immunity and knowing which prescription antivirals to administer. Using a low estimate of how lethal 2019-nCoV is at 0.5% (or assuming China has under reported infections by nearly a magnitude and there are currently 100,000 to 300,000 patients), 20 million infected could mean 100,000 deaths.

A possibly positive statistic about nCoV is that diagnosed infections (assuming the the 28,353 number is accurate) have fallen below geometric growth. Watching the death rate for another three weeks will tell. The number (of known) dead world wide has hit 500 victims 43 days earlier than 2009 Swine Flu.

[hal]

Very roughly, about 2 in 10000 die from the flu, but in china about 2 in 100 are dying from this bug. If the entire world is infected, lots will die.

[freeradical]

hal wrote:
Very roughly, about 2 in 10000 die from the flu, but in china about 2 in 100 are dying from this bug. If the entire world is infected, lots will die.

Perhaps 2 out of 100 die who end up in a hospital. I'm sure that many others are infected who don't feel sick enough to seek medical help.

Additionally, people who are vaccinated against the flu provide some sort of limited herd immunity to the flu. If there were no flu vaccine, an outbreak of the flu could be something that would make for a great novel.

This is what the commander of USFK feels about coronavirus:

As you're aware, the novel coronavirus, originating from mainland China, is spreading globally and shares similar symptoms to the common cold and flu.

Good hygiene practices and minimizing contact with anyone who has returned from mainland China in the past 14 days, and who are exhibiting any cold or flu like symptoms, are the best prevention measures to controlling the spread. If you are feeling cold or flu-like symptoms, please go to a doctor immediately - more importantly, do not go to work or school. Stay at your home or in the barracks while you are recovering.

We must do our best to prevent the spread or it will have a significant impact on our "Fight Tonight" readiness!

We understand your concerns and we are monitoring this situation very closely, around the clock. We currently assess a low threat or risk to our USFK formations and installations. We will keep you informed as the situation develops and if our assessment changes.

https://www.usfk.mil/Media/News/Article/...JKyEVHlPI/

[testcase]

Any reliable / authoritative word as to whether the corona virus is a “natural” mutation or, a lab created bio weapon that somehow got loose?

[Racer X]

I did read that they are growing samples in a lab, the first step in a vaccine.

[hal]

I'm not saying you should run to your bunker and lock the door. I'm just disagreeing with the contention that this is nothing worse than this years flu - THAT AIN'T TRUE. Not sure why you're citing some military guy, but he did say that there is a low level threat because of this. What did he say about the flu last year? Nothing? Meaning zero threat? Of course it's a low level threat at this point, but he's not saying to ignore it. In fact, they are watching around the clock. Did they do that for last years' flu?

There was a PHd in physics that was 100% sure that 911 was an inside job. I'm sure he's a smart guy - we should listen to him too perhaps - right?

freeradical wrote:
[quote=hal]
Very roughly, about 2 in 10000 die from the flu, but in china about 2 in 100 are dying from this bug. If the entire world is infected, lots will die.

Perhaps 2 out of 100 die who end up in a hospital. I'm sure that many others are infected who don't feel sick enough to seek medical help.

Additionally, people who are vaccinated against the flu provide some sort of limited herd immunity to the flu. If there were no flu vaccine, an outbreak of the flu could be something that would make for a great novel.

This is what the commander of USFK feels about coronavirus:

As you're aware, the novel coronavirus, originating from mainland China, is spreading globally and shares similar symptoms to the common cold and flu.

Good hygiene practices and minimizing contact with anyone who has returned from mainland China in the past 14 days, and who are exhibiting any cold or flu like symptoms, are the best prevention measures to controlling the spread. If you are feeling cold or flu-like symptoms, please go to a doctor immediately - more importantly, do not go to work or school. Stay at your home or in the barracks while you are recovering.

We must do our best to prevent the spread or it will have a significant impact on our "Fight Tonight" readiness!

We understand your concerns and we are monitoring this situation very closely, around the clock. We currently assess a low threat or risk to our USFK formations and installations. We will keep you informed as the situation develops and if our assessment changes.

https://www.usfk.mil/Media/News/Article/...JKyEVHlPI/

[freeradical]

hal wrote:
I'm not saying you should run to your bunker and lock the door. I'm just disagreeing with the contention that this is nothing worse than this years flu - THAT AIN'T TRUE. Not sure why you're citing some military guy, but he did say that there is a low level threat because of this. What did he say about the flu last year? Nothing? Meaning zero threat? Of course it's a low level threat at this point, but he's not saying to ignore it. In fact, they are watching around the clock. Did they do that for last years' flu?

There was a PHd in physics that was 100% sure that 911 was an inside job. I'm sure he's a smart guy - we should listen to him too perhaps - right?

That commander is responsible for the health and readiness of all our forces in Korea, and he has solid medical professionals who advise him on matters such as this. He's not just some random - however smart - guy on the interwebs.

[Filliam H. Muffman]

Besides Li, the worst virus related story this week was a few day old newborn that was diagnosed as infected while in the hospital after being born.

[Filliam H. Muffman]

freeradical wrote: Perhaps 2 out of 100 die who end up in a hospital. I'm sure that many others are infected who don't feel sick enough to seek medical help.

Care to update this statement now that we are well on the way to 300,000 dead by the one year anniversary of the first death?