O. T. - Possible Hurricane threat Gulf Coast or East Coast

[Carnos Jax]

By the middle of next week, a former non-contender may end up causing havoc in the Gulf (lots of warm water, almost unseasonably warm). Models also predict a possible East Coast jaunt. This could be quite severe if it ends up in the Gulf.

[rz]

link?

[Carnos Jax]

The official forcasts don't talk about it yet, but, by the 5:00 p.m. update it may be classified as a Tropical Depression, thus beginning the issuance on guidance from the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov .

Woops, just as I was writing this, they (NHC) just issued a Tropical Disturbance Statement on this system (currently located in the Eastern Carribean, you can see it on the NHC main page I mentioned above).

I've been getting my information by following discussions (as a lurker) at the following sites (referenced off the Skeetobite Weather site, www.skeetobiteweather.com others here have mentioned):

http://flhurricane.com/

[Zoidberg]

http://skeetobiteweather.com/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.wwltv.com/

http://www.wwl.com/

[Carnos Jax]

This is the source of the concern:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg


Here's a zoomed out view that better shows Tropical Depression 5 in relation to us:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUVS.JPG


Here's one shot of the models (the numbers indicate hours):

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/g...early1.png

[Carnos Jax]

And why it could be bad if it gets into the Gulf:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

[Grateful11]

There's goes the price of oil, just when it was almost under $70. It went up over a
dollar today. All it takes is the mention of a possible hit on the Gulf. Never used to
have an effect on it.

[Carnos Jax]

Kinda like Tropical Storm Chris before it, what we (as a civilization) know about hurricanes leads us to believe that TD 5 can be real nasty. But like Chris, unexpected surprises (in Chris' case, the decapitation of the system's convection by a (upper level?) low pressure center that 'somewhat' unexpectedly dropped down on it) can humble us quickly. Never the less, a good many factors point towards this being a nasty mess. Hard to tell where it'll go once it's in the Gulf (most models indicate a turn to the North), and from the discussion, it seems that the Central Gulf Coast has the most to be concerned with right now.