What are the odds he shows up to accept?

[RgrF]

Liu Xiaobo, Chinese Dissident, Awarded Nobel Peace Prize

The imprisoned Chinese democracy activist Liu Xiaobo was
awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, an announcement that
the Chinese government anticipated with bitter criticism.

Mr. Liu was jailed for 11 years last December for writing a
2008 manifesto with other Chinese activists that calls for
free speech and multiparty elections.

The prize, including $1.5 million, will be presented in Oslo
on Dec. 10. wrote:

NYT

[cbelt3]

Exactly ZERO.

I would give much higher odds that they determine that he has 'died of an illness' or was 'shot trying to escape'.