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Filliam H. Muffman wrote:
jdc, freeradical, and Ken Sp. are the users listed on the map downstream from Lake Oroville.
It's the second largest reservoir in the state. Oroville and Yuba City/Marysville would be mowed down. Highway 5, 80, and 99 would likely be under water in multiple places. Sacramento could be in very bad shape depending on how much it rains in the next two days since they already have flooding in some outlying areas.
Lake Oroville is 3.6 million acre feet, that's a square area about 75 miles on a side, one foot deep. Sacramento is 68 miles from Oroville. I don't know if all the water would flow out.
I've been keeping posted on this, and it appears that the erosion is not As fast as first anticipated. Evacuations were important, because if the spillway goes, those in low-lying areas will be affected. As has been stated earlier, the dam collapsing would be catastrophic, but it appears that that is not even a thought at this point. Luckily, I live a bit closer to Oroville, but my elevation is plenty high. If it were to flood up where I live, the majority of California would be underwater.
The new Sacramento Mayor, I have said that there is no reason to worry. Take it for what it's worth, but if I was near the river, I would be concerned a bit.
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For the record.
Paul F. wrote:
...the city of Sacramento [75+ miles from the dam] is between the dam and the sea [160+ miles from the dam].
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My nephew, his wife and 1 year old are in the path; found out that they bugged out last night to higher ground and a hotel.
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Here's some info about a somewhat similar situation: the Johnstown, PA. flood of 1889.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood
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Ken Sp. wrote:
[quote=Filliam H. Muffman]
jdc, freeradical, and Ken Sp. are the users listed on the map downstream from Lake Oroville.
It's the second largest reservoir in the state. Oroville and Yuba City/Marysville would be mowed down. Highway 5, 80, and 99 would likely be under water in multiple places. Sacramento could be in very bad shape depending on how much it rains in the next two days since they already have flooding in some outlying areas.
Lake Oroville is 3.6 million acre feet, that's a square area about 75 miles on a side, one foot deep. Sacramento is 68 miles from Oroville. I don't know if all the water would flow out.
I've been keeping posted on this, and it appears that the erosion is not As fast as first anticipated. Evacuations were important, because if the spillway goes, those in low-lying areas will be affected. As has been stated earlier, the dam collapsing would be catastrophic, but it appears that that is not even a thought at this point. Luckily, I live a bit closer to Oroville, but my elevation is plenty high. If it were to flood up where I live, the majority of California would be underwater.
The new Sacramento Mayor, I have said that there is no reason to worry. Take it for what it's worth, but if I was near the river, I would be concerned a bit.
I remembered hal is in the area, he didn't show the first time for some reason. MRF user map
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Ammo wrote:
Here's some info about a somewhat similar situation: the Johnstown, PA. flood of 1889.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood
The main Oroville dam is in no danger of collapsing, so not really the same.
This one is little known, in S Cal -- and tons of peeps now live there -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Francis_Dam
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.....dam it all to hell.....
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I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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jdc wrote:
[quote=Ammo]
Here's some info about a somewhat similar situation: the Johnstown, PA. flood of 1889.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood
The main Oroville dam is in no danger of collapsing, so not really the same.
This one is little known, in S Cal -- and tons of peeps now live there -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Francis_Dam
I'm thinking that the dam itself WAS in danger. Not of a catastrophic collapse, but... maybe...
You can see their concerns: the 30' emergency spillway wall collapsing... that endangered the actual spillway. They were saying that if the erosion went that far, there would be 'uncontrolled release'. RIGHT next to the spillway is the dam itself. If the top of the spillway dissolved under intense erosion, the uncontrolled release of water would eventually start to erode support for the top of the dam structure and the dam wall itself might begin to crumble from the top down. It's not an impossibility. But if they even said it, 1,000,000 people downstream would have panicked and that might have been ugly.
Looks like they have things under control now - just hope they can release more water than will arrive in the next storm on Wednesday. I suspect they can.
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What I read and heard contradicted that -- since there was a big hill between the damn and the spill ways the dam wouldnt be going anywhere any time. And its built into granite.
But if the spillway side did give way, no idea how much might go? kinda hard to tell how deep it is over there.
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