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All markets are off from Jan 20 and have cliff-dived in the last two weeks. Now tariffs are kicking in which will raise prices and stifle spending - both hallmarks of inflation. Unemployment is going to go up substantially due to government layoffs and the private sector reacting to it all.
I give it another month or six weeks before the R-word is being bantered about.
My guess is the Trump and Musk clans are going short on the market and long on futures. Manipulating the economy for their own benefit.
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They usually announce a recession 6 months after the start.
But that presupposes economists in the employ of the federal government.
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Well... if I work six months forward from election day... sometime early May.
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The Atlanta Fed runs a model called GDPNow that forecasts future quarters. In the last week(!) it has fallen from 2.3% growth to 2.8 decline. IN ONE WEEK. I have not seen the write up but my guess is that tariffs just might have something to do with it?
And another interesting chart is the 'policy uncertainty index' based on FRED data...
The spikes are Lehman Bros going down in Sept of 2008, COVID, and now...
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This is what we get for the WEAK DOJ which didn't put this criminal in jail.
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well I sure hope they blame Obama
“Art is how we decorate space.
Music is how we decorate time.”
Jean-Michel Basquiat
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My understanding is that this is one sign.
But I believe it won't be until the real effects of the sanctions kick in that will cause an official ''recession."
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The Commerce Secretary, Lutnick, was discussing the changes they want to make to economic statistics...his latest is that government should not count. wtf.
Anyway, here's hoping we can trust the stats. Fed numbers will be the last to fail.
