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"Extended forecast" for next Saturday says storms, although adjacent days are fine. That's a week from today.
Are these reports actually based on something, or is it just entertanment?
Thursday:
Partly Cloudy
High 82°F
Low 71°F
Precip. 20 %
Friday
Partly Cloudy
High 86°F
Low 73°F
Precip. 20 %
Saturday
Scattered T-Storms
High 79°F
Low 66°F
Precip. 40 %
Sunday
Sunny
High 79°F
Low 64°F
Precip. 20 %
Monday
Mostly Cloudy
High 76°F
Low 61°F
Precip. 20 %
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I've said it before, and i will surely say it again.
They have the only job on the planet where pathetic accuracy won't get them fired.
The military forecasters are far more accurate, but they have access to data that civilians don't, and they can't share the data either.
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In the Hudson River Valley region of upstate New York, the river acts to moderate conditions such that accurately predicting weather up to a few months in advance is not unheard of.
Elsewhere in the country, you're on your own if you're looking beyond tomorrow's report.
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[quote Racer X]I've said it before, and i will surely say it again.
They have the only job on the planet where pathetic accuracy won't get them fired.
First of all, forecasts are pretty accurate 3 to 5 days out. Beyond that, things start to get a little more fuzzy. The problem is with the way most people see weather forecasts presented:
Hi / Lo / Two or three word description.
There is simply no way to capture the variability of weather so tersely. Furthermore, people NEVER remember the 85% of the time that forecasts are correct, they only remember the times that they were really wrong.
[quote Racer X]
The military forecasters are far more accurate, but they have access to data that civilians don't, and they can't share the data either.
Bull plop.
Everyone has access to the same data, at least for forecasts. The difference is that the military folk are generally forecasting for specific points, whereas the public sector generally deals with large swaths of the Earth. You can be much more accurate when you are forecasting for a specific point than, say, for a metropolitan area.
I can say this as a Meteorologist (no longer practicing) who has high ranking friends who are Meteorologists in the armed services as well as friends who are Meteorologists in the public sector.
- Shadow
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It's their best guess based on the information they have at the moment. In short, buncha hooey.
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I believe the Navy says four hours out is about the max for a really accurate forecast.
Grateful11
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[quote Grateful11]I believe the Navy says four hours out is about the max for a really accurate forecast.
You must've been in a different NAVY than I was.
No problems 24 hour forecast in the US NAVY.
BGnR
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I should have clarified that the "3 to 5 day" forecast accuracy I was talking about was for the general public forecasts.
- Shadow
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The reports I get from a meteorologist friend who is stationed at McCord AFB here in Puget Sound are far more accurate than what is reported on the news.
