04-28-2021, 02:07 AM
mrbigstuff wrote:
[quote=AllGold]
The lull, if you had one, was caused by mitigation measures and by vaccinations.
The resurgence (or reversal of the lull) was due to several factors:
• "Covid fatigue" - people got tired of the mitigation measures and decreased compliance--or abandoned them altogether.
• A return of schools to in-person instruction.
• Winter youth sports. It's not just practices and games where spread can occur. There is always socialization associated.
Do you have citations for that because, although that was the popular wisdom, and a very popular opinion here, the positive tests at my kids schools were miniscule. Out of thousands of tests they had less than a dozen positives. And the school sports thing didn't make too much of a difference, although they saw about a half dozen more positives once that started. All in all, far fewer positives than the general population.
What I posted is pretty Michigan-centric. That is what was driving the incredible surge in cases and hospitalizations in the state while Michigan was #1 in the U.S. in increased cases.
As for schools, the thing is, if you don't have much virus in the community then you won't have much spread in schools. But here in Michigan, outbreaks associated with schools and school sports were rampant.
But I believe the b.1.1.7 variant is now the dominant strain nation wide. It's just that it was in Michigan earlier than just about anywhere else. It was here in mid January and took until mid March before it began to explode.