05-01-2021, 05:22 PM
Lemon Drop wrote:
[quote=p8712]
[quote=Lemon Drop]
[quote=p8712]
I will need a third shot by January. At least getting a booster should not be difficult at this point.
How do you know?
That would be the one year mark for my vaccination.
Right but there is no evidence to date that effectiveness of the original vaccine wears off, or that COVID-19 will circle the globe in some new form each year like influenza does. We just do not know yet.
We do.
Current estimates range from 6 months to 3 years of protection from the mRNA vaccines with most estimates that I see ranging from 6 to 9 months.
We have an idea now about how rapidly the virus mutates and how many of these mutations help the virus to escape our immune system's vaccine-trained responses. We have increasingly-greater knowledge of waning antibody and white blood cell responses to the virus/variants. We can make increasingly-better estimates from the breakthrough rates and reinfection rates. We're not at the point where we have one vaccine that covers all of the variants.
Both CDC physicians and vaccine-makers are talking up boosters. (Fauci was talking about boosters back in November.) Follow their lead in this.