03-03-2022, 03:44 AM
kj wrote:
[quote=Tiangou]
[quote=Carnos Jax]
[quote=Tiangou]
[quote=Carnos Jax]
NATO nor the U.S. will have to get involved. At this point Putin is a dead man walking. He has overplayed his hand. There is no outcome from here that allows Putin to remain alive or in power...
...Except if he does. Both.
?
Are you saying he can remain both alive and in power? If so, how is that possible without him pulling out of Ukraine?
Russia can survive sanctions.
Russia's banks are barely bothered by the international boycott. The ruble is still trading on currency exchanges. India and China are happy to do business with them.
Russian citizens don't need Mastercard. Or Disney+.
People adapt.
All Putin has to do is steadily keep up his assault on Ukraine and wait until the news cycle turns. Then he'll have Ukraine with barely a headline and few protests.
And when winter comes, Europe will be begging him for natural gas. All but the most meaningless of sanctions lifted before he'll come to the table.
That's the scenario he's angling for.
Who on our side is willing to escalate, to derail that plan?
I agree, it's inevitable. I think the world will wish we'd done more, but it isn't going to happen for Ukraine. Why wouldn't he hit another non-NATO country next? No one is going to do anything that matters to him. Putin knows how to survive when people want him dead, or he wouldn't be around.
I believe y'all are underestimating the tolerance of the Russian people as well the Russian economy to these sanctions. You make a good point though if this drags on until next winter, the west will compromise for the sake of gas.