How long until we are officially in a recession?

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The Atlanta Fed runs a model called GDPNow that forecasts future quarters. In the last week(!) it has fallen from 2.3% growth to 2.8 decline. IN ONE WEEK. I have not seen the write up but my guess is that tariffs just might have something to do with it?







And another interesting chart is the 'policy uncertainty index' based on FRED data...






The spikes are Lehman Bros going down in Sept of 2008, COVID, and now...