08-20-2006, 12:22 AM
[quote Racer X]I've said it before, and i will surely say it again.
They have the only job on the planet where pathetic accuracy won't get them fired.
First of all, forecasts are pretty accurate 3 to 5 days out. Beyond that, things start to get a little more fuzzy. The problem is with the way most people see weather forecasts presented:
Hi / Lo / Two or three word description.
There is simply no way to capture the variability of weather so tersely. Furthermore, people NEVER remember the 85% of the time that forecasts are correct, they only remember the times that they were really wrong.
[quote Racer X]
The military forecasters are far more accurate, but they have access to data that civilians don't, and they can't share the data either.
Bull plop.
Everyone has access to the same data, at least for forecasts. The difference is that the military folk are generally forecasting for specific points, whereas the public sector generally deals with large swaths of the Earth. You can be much more accurate when you are forecasting for a specific point than, say, for a metropolitan area.
I can say this as a Meteorologist (no longer practicing) who has high ranking friends who are Meteorologists in the armed services as well as friends who are Meteorologists in the public sector.
- Shadow
They have the only job on the planet where pathetic accuracy won't get them fired.
First of all, forecasts are pretty accurate 3 to 5 days out. Beyond that, things start to get a little more fuzzy. The problem is with the way most people see weather forecasts presented:
Hi / Lo / Two or three word description.
There is simply no way to capture the variability of weather so tersely. Furthermore, people NEVER remember the 85% of the time that forecasts are correct, they only remember the times that they were really wrong.
[quote Racer X]
The military forecasters are far more accurate, but they have access to data that civilians don't, and they can't share the data either.
Bull plop.
Everyone has access to the same data, at least for forecasts. The difference is that the military folk are generally forecasting for specific points, whereas the public sector generally deals with large swaths of the Earth. You can be much more accurate when you are forecasting for a specific point than, say, for a metropolitan area.
I can say this as a Meteorologist (no longer practicing) who has high ranking friends who are Meteorologists in the armed services as well as friends who are Meteorologists in the public sector.
- Shadow