12-08-2008, 11:15 PM
...is analogous to declaring what Greg will eat on Friday. Is it a sure thing? No. Might it be reasonable? Yes.
It's not analogous _at all_. But it is a good illustration of why _simple_ logic is rarely useful in the real world (nothings that simple). You've simplified the situation in such a way as to make your logic work, but in the process, you've misrepresented the situation (it's not that simple). Plus, I think you're mixing up probability and logic because you're not quite sure what model best fits the circumstances. The last part of your post is a fair enough opinion though. kj.
It's not analogous _at all_. But it is a good illustration of why _simple_ logic is rarely useful in the real world (nothings that simple). You've simplified the situation in such a way as to make your logic work, but in the process, you've misrepresented the situation (it's not that simple). Plus, I think you're mixing up probability and logic because you're not quite sure what model best fits the circumstances. The last part of your post is a fair enough opinion though. kj.