12-10-2008, 03:07 AM
I tend to avoid believing in anything that seems like a belief system (ok, except UFOs, Bigfoot, and the Loch Ness Monster), so I have to admit that I generally don't "believe" in global warming. I don't spend much time trying to follow or understand the science either, and generally support most of the environmentally based recommendations that flow from a belief in anthropomorphic GW. However, and off the top of my head:
Global temps peaked in 1998. They have plateaued since then (some people think they have gone down since then, but the trend may not be clear either way, except we can clearly say they not gone up).
There was snow in South Africa this summer, and 2008 will be cooler with some places setting records for coldness. Arctic warming is possibly explained by other factors primarily, like pacific oscillations.
Solar activity is at an all time low. Global temps clearly correlate with solar activity, and historically that may be the leading cause of global fluctuation in temperature. The current solar low would predict a period of cooling over the next decade or so, which could be offset by GW more or less.
Al Gore's movie was released after 2000, but most of his data in the movie stopped as of 1998. I haven't seen the movie in years, but he generally started his data for his trend lines in 1850. 1850 was the end of a period of profound global cooling as a result of solar activity, so all models would have predicted significant warming after that period as a result of solar activity.
I have yet to see a credible explanation of what has happened to CO2 emissions and how that has impacted temps. My memory is that current science can only explain about a 1/3 of C02, and that the environment, primarily the seas but also trees and plants, have been acting as a carbon sink absorbing everything else (my understanding is that there is fear this will stop or change in the near future). I don't know of credible models predicting or explaining how this carbon sink works or what its limits may be.
CO2 is also a fairly minor greenhouse gas. The increase in CO2 and its impact on global temperatures is still within the margin of error of our ability to measure global temperatures. Water vapor constitutes something like 98% of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere (water is ignored by GW proponents, since it is believed to be in an endless feedback loop).
I am not saying that human activity hasn't caused GW. It probably has, and it probably will cause more. But the issue and the science has been at this point hopeless politicized, such that we can't have meaningful debate about the major unresolved issues at play. I don't see this changing anytime soon, so it will likely take years more of inconclusive data before we get back to trying to understand what is really going on.
Global temps peaked in 1998. They have plateaued since then (some people think they have gone down since then, but the trend may not be clear either way, except we can clearly say they not gone up).
There was snow in South Africa this summer, and 2008 will be cooler with some places setting records for coldness. Arctic warming is possibly explained by other factors primarily, like pacific oscillations.
Solar activity is at an all time low. Global temps clearly correlate with solar activity, and historically that may be the leading cause of global fluctuation in temperature. The current solar low would predict a period of cooling over the next decade or so, which could be offset by GW more or less.
Al Gore's movie was released after 2000, but most of his data in the movie stopped as of 1998. I haven't seen the movie in years, but he generally started his data for his trend lines in 1850. 1850 was the end of a period of profound global cooling as a result of solar activity, so all models would have predicted significant warming after that period as a result of solar activity.
I have yet to see a credible explanation of what has happened to CO2 emissions and how that has impacted temps. My memory is that current science can only explain about a 1/3 of C02, and that the environment, primarily the seas but also trees and plants, have been acting as a carbon sink absorbing everything else (my understanding is that there is fear this will stop or change in the near future). I don't know of credible models predicting or explaining how this carbon sink works or what its limits may be.
CO2 is also a fairly minor greenhouse gas. The increase in CO2 and its impact on global temperatures is still within the margin of error of our ability to measure global temperatures. Water vapor constitutes something like 98% of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere (water is ignored by GW proponents, since it is believed to be in an endless feedback loop).
I am not saying that human activity hasn't caused GW. It probably has, and it probably will cause more. But the issue and the science has been at this point hopeless politicized, such that we can't have meaningful debate about the major unresolved issues at play. I don't see this changing anytime soon, so it will likely take years more of inconclusive data before we get back to trying to understand what is really going on.