What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?

[Filliam H. Muffman]

I wonder how parents are going to react when schools require vaccination cards to attend in person schooling.

[Robert M]

Filliam,

The same way they reacted here in NY when a slew of exemptions for required vaccinations were eliminated. Outrage and lawsuits. End result? The plaintiffs lost their lawsuits and the changes stood.

Robert

[PeterB]

Filliam H. Muffman wrote:
I wonder how parents are going to react when schools require vaccination cards to attend in person schooling.

If we're talking college/university, those schools have the absolute right to require vaccination as a requirement for attending. The perspective of the schools is that they are within their rights to have basic entrance requirements, so long as those requirements are not prejudicial. They already require vaccinations for other things, like meningitis, MMR, etc., so it's consistent with prior established norms.

[JoeH]

PeterB wrote:
[quote=Filliam H. Muffman]
I wonder how parents are going to react when schools require vaccination cards to attend in person schooling.

If we're talking college/university, those schools have the absolute right to require vaccination as a requirement for attending. The perspective of the schools is that they are within their rights to have basic entrance requirements, so long as those requirements are not prejudicial. They already require vaccinations for other things, like meningitis, MMR, etc., so it's consistent with prior established norms.
True, though state and other laws may limit whether they can require these vaccines while they are just under an Emergency Use Authorization. Limitations may also be different for public versus private schools.

The state university I worked for just announced last week they plan on requiring the vaccinator next Fall. That is contingent on the vaccines getting full authorization from the FDA as the state law applicable to required vaccinations would need to be used to make it a requirement. If not required, they will strongly recommend students get the vaccine before coming or shortly after arriving on campus. They do have an entire dorm plus other space reserved for quarantine housing of students without vaccinations and until they have at least 2 negative tests in the 2 weeks after arriving.

Getting back to the "lull", at the university they had about 5500 students living on campus this Spring. About 800 have tested positive since the semester began in late January, 600 by the end of February. That first month of cases mostly came from students who ignored the guidelines and got together in large groups and a number of off campus parties near campus. That included one frat that hosted two large parties the first weekend on two separate nights. The students going back to their dorms infected others, in some cases almost an entire floor eventually came down with the illness. I think the slowing down after that was partly other students found out who to avoid, and partly recognition that not following the rules had consequences. Oh and by the end of February into early March the student disciplinary committee had a chance to hear cases and a number of students found themselves removed from housing.

From what I have seen in the news and online, that experience was similar at other colleges, so multiple that across the country it would have some appearance in the statistics. Locally the students were about 5% of the population in the county, but for that period were about 60% or more of all cases reported in the county.

[PeterB]

JoeH, you've got a point about the EUA.

The question is, what to do in a situation like in my state, where apparently a good 2/3rds of people are still not vaccinated, and a large proportion of them apparently have no intention of EVER getting vaccinated? I would think that, in of itself, may make mandating much more difficult.

[AllGold]

The lull, if you had one, was caused by mitigation measures and by vaccinations.

The resurgence (or reversal of the lull) was due to several factors:

• "Covid fatigue" - people got tired of the mitigation measures and decreased compliance--or abandoned them altogether.

• A return of schools to in-person instruction.

• Winter youth sports. It's not just practices and games where spread can occur. There is always socialization associated.

• The variants. The UK b.1.1.7 variant has become the dominant strain in the U.S. It is much more contagious and is thought to affect kids much more than the original strain.

I have heard some experts say they think we were on track to get ahead of the virus until the variants became prevalent. The variants spread much faster (and among younger people) and outpaced the rate at which we can vaccinate.

[mrbigstuff]

AllGold wrote:
The lull, if you had one, was caused by mitigation measures and by vaccinations.

The resurgence (or reversal of the lull) was due to several factors:

• "Covid fatigue" - people got tired of the mitigation measures and decreased compliance--or abandoned them altogether.

• A return of schools to in-person instruction.

• Winter youth sports. It's not just practices and games where spread can occur. There is always socialization associated.

Do you have citations for that because, although that was the popular wisdom, and a very popular opinion here, the positive tests at my kids schools were miniscule. Out of thousands of tests they had less than a dozen positives. And the school sports thing didn't make too much of a difference, although they saw about a half dozen more positives once that started. All in all, far fewer positives than the general population.

[AllGold]

mrbigstuff wrote:
[quote=AllGold]
The lull, if you had one, was caused by mitigation measures and by vaccinations.

The resurgence (or reversal of the lull) was due to several factors:

• "Covid fatigue" - people got tired of the mitigation measures and decreased compliance--or abandoned them altogether.

• A return of schools to in-person instruction.

• Winter youth sports. It's not just practices and games where spread can occur. There is always socialization associated.

Do you have citations for that because, although that was the popular wisdom, and a very popular opinion here, the positive tests at my kids schools were miniscule. Out of thousands of tests they had less than a dozen positives. And the school sports thing didn't make too much of a difference, although they saw about a half dozen more positives once that started. All in all, far fewer positives than the general population.
What I posted is pretty Michigan-centric. That is what was driving the incredible surge in cases and hospitalizations in the state while Michigan was #1 in the U.S. in increased cases.

As for schools, the thing is, if you don't have much virus in the community then you won't have much spread in schools. But here in Michigan, outbreaks associated with schools and school sports were rampant.

But I believe the b.1.1.7 variant is now the dominant strain nation wide. It's just that it was in Michigan earlier than just about anywhere else. It was here in mid January and took until mid March before it began to explode.