AAPL Earnings Be Good...REAL Good!

[N-OS X-tasy!]

Oh, good grief.

[Article Accelerator]

IronMac wrote: Let's look at the transcript shall we?

A. Total China revenues are down by 12%.
B. Their inventory growth in China has slowed. Normally, a company that is confident in an area's future sales will grow their inventory in anticipation of said sales.
C. Cook says China sales were even with the past quarter in constant currency term. That's fine but it does not bode well if you are considered a GROWTH company. They are not growing, they are simply holding still.
D. Maestri does not specify much they are growing app sales in China.

Let me help you out (from the transcript):

[Maestri]
"…our year-over-year performance in Greater China improved significantly relative to the September quarter. Total Greater China segment revenue was down 12%, but revenue from Mainland China was even with the all-time record results from a year ago and grew in constant currency terms."

[Cook]
"…our Greater China revenue was down 12%, and about 4 points of that was currency related, so it's an 8 point decline in constant currency. And then within Greater China, if you look at the PRC, our revenue was flat year over year, and that was against the all-time record quarter. And if you look at that on a constant currency basis, it was actually up 6%. So it's a significantly better performance on every way you look at it versus what we had experienced the prior three quarters."

Let's not get too excited…

[IronMac]

Yes, year over year, their PRC revenue was flat. Notice how he stripped out HK. Even if you take their PRC revenue as being up it was only up 6%. That's hardly "growth".

Notice you did not say anything about inventory growth or app sales. At best, the company is treading water in China.

[Sam3]

IronMac wrote:
Heaven help AAPL if their anniversary iPhone develops an exploding battery problem a la Note. It will destroy the company. Samsung sailed through that debacle because their revenues/sales are well diversified.

A one-trick pony like Apple? Forget it.

This, I think, is the key. What happens if iPhone sales should tank for whatever reason? Like an exploding battery? Apple won't have Macs to fall back on, as they seem to be be slowly getting out of the computer market just as Microsoft is pushing into it. Apple just ended monitor sales and router sales, they are looking to be truly a one-trick pony, and that is usually a bad philosophy, as technology and people's use of technology changes, making one-trick ponies become extinct. The smartphone market will eventually be saturated, and/or another technology will disrupt it.

[MacJeepster]

IronMac wrote:
[quote=Rick-o]
[quote=IronMac]
Calendar Q4 is always a good quarter. If this past one had failed to meet or just met expectations there'd be a bloodbath on AAPL shares tomorrow.

Yeah, well, I'm certainly glad *I* didn't sell! :wink:
You're going to bet against the guy who made over 9000% on AAPL? miley-shocked003:
Some reasons I'm not cashing in my Apple stock:
•There's still the matter of the expected Republican "tax holiday," when Apple is expected to bring hundreds of billions of dollars into the US at a greatly reduced tax rate, They could use it to buy back shares or declare a "special dividend" of up to $38 per share (or some have suggested buying Disney).
•With the slower incremental advance in iPhones, many people haven't seen a compelling need to upgrade, There are are lots of 5s and 6s in service. When the iPhone 8 comes out, lots of these people will upgrade not only to the 8, but others will move up to the 7, which is big step up, especially for someone with a 5. There's not just the matter of the added features, but the tired batteries in these older phones.
•Tim Cook has acknowledged the company has been remiss in upgrading its desktops. I expect they will bring out something way cool sooner rather than later.

So I won't sell the stock yet - my wife want me to buy more, and I would, but we need kitchen cabinets and a floor without holes in it to protect the real estate investment we call "home."
Also, that huge return came over 30 years.

[Mr645]

I think Apple has maxed out it's product line , phones, computers, pads. In order to grow they need to come up with the "Next Big Thing". The watch is a bust, perhaps a TV, car or something, but they need something

[OWC Larry]

They need to start building computers that the Pros want and even on the consumer side that have the legs Macs historically have had. The appliance thing will kill the Mac side unless they substantially drop pricing - but that's not Apple's model. They want their cake and to eat it too - which they kind of have had with the iPhone side of the biz... but so much downside risk on that concentration.

My largest worry is the way they have been losing their vocal fan base - the pros - that also are a big reason why Apple is around today when you got back 10, 15, 20 years. Today they have a lot of great things still for that audience, but they are not giving the audience what it wants.

Even on the consumer side, I'm at a tech conference this week and folks don't want to give up their older Macs because they have gear that needs a couple USB ports and carrying extra adapters around is just not a good option. One guy loves his MacBook 12", but sticks with his 2011 MacBook Air 13" because it has the two standard USB ports he needs.

They should split of the Mac unit entirely or sell the Mac OS for $499 in an open version that allows users to legally use it on non Apple hardware with the blocks off. No support mind you, but no handicaps either. Plenty of great hardware already out there - let Apple do it's consumer thing and let the pros get platforms legally qualified for what they need - and then you got the hobbyists too that can have at it as well.

Glad for a good quarter - and the anniversary iPhone sure to be a hit - but after that, starts to get a little worrisome imho - especially if Mac sales continue to slip.

[Lux Interior]

No, no, no...

Apple just needs to make everything thinner!

People aren't buying Macs because they aren't thin enough!

And they have too many ports!

(The world according to Ive)

[bobinmurphy]

OWC Larry wrote:
They should split of the Mac unit entirely or sell the Mac OS for $499 in an open version that allows users to legally use it on non Apple hardware with the blocks off. No support mind you, but no handicaps either. Plenty of great hardware already out there - let Apple do it's consumer thing and let the pros get platforms legally qualified for what they need - and then you got the hobbyists too that can have at it as well.

I respectively disagree with the second part of this. Years ago I worked for Digital Equipment supporting PDP-11s and later VAXes in the field. The PDP-11 had a very open HW environment allowing everybody and their uncle to build HW that could attach to the Unibus. A lot of it was really sub-standard, but customers felt they were saving money buying the cheaper stuff. However, when problems came up the name on the front of the computer said "DEC" and that's who they'd call and complain to. The VAX line took pretty much the opposite approach and was really restrictive on what OEMs could build and attach to the machine. We had a LOT fewer customer complains and the few we got were mainly about the closed nature of the system.

Now that was HW, not SW, but Microsoft had a similar experience with their SW. The closed nature System on the old Macs pretty much meant all applications were going to have a very similar look and feel to them. That was never the case with the applications on MSDOS and Windows, and that in part lead to a lot higher support costs for Windows users. If OS X was opened up you'd have a lot of people cramming in their half-baked "better ideas" leading to a much less stable and robust system.

I do however agree with everything else you wrote.

[OWC Larry]

I do agree with the concerns noted.

It's not about being cheap on the HW side, it's about being able to have the capabilities needed. Pros would be a lot happier today, for example, if Apple had delivered a Silver Tower 2013 Mac Pro updated with the Thunderbolt and USB3 and updated video... But instead apple outdid itself to engineer the trash can Mac Pro - which is an engineering marvel, but highly limited beyond certain needs and now, already - 3 years long in the tooth and, worse, no way to really upgrade it along the way to keep it relevant - like with updated GPUs, etc.

Apple says how little the pros mean to them today in revenue terms and it's such self fulfillment as they continue to build what more and more are expensive consumer systems vs. those that address pro needs.

I am really rooting for Apple to have some fantastic new systems in March or early Spring - stuff that the Pros can be excited about... cause regardless of their revenue impact from their own buys, they have broad influence and certainly drive a lot more revenue and brand awareness than perhaps given credit for today. And today there are a lot that are disappointed and talking about Windows and Linux because Apple doesn't make the hardware they need for the latest needs coming to be.

I agree that there is risk in losing control of the user experience and being associated with bad experiences on hardware they don't control... That said - as they have tried to get this 2yr Mac replacement cycle going on very expensive, glued up, soldered up, non-user serviceable, missing needed ports and reader, etc models that don't deliver what consumers and pros a like are asking for (not saying these aren't also great for a lot of people) - Mac may not matter at all in a few years unless the market catches up to what will be (and Apple just got there too early, but is poised for what's next) or they get with the damn program and give a little more credit to what customers want.....

On most high end PCs with Type C Thunderbolt and/or USB - they also have the standard USB 3 type A ports.

no one I have encountered has raved about how thin the new MacBook Pros are vs. complained about not having the ports they need everyday. Yes, the machine would have been a little thicker to have Type A ports on it.... but it's the functionality desired.

Got a little long winded and beyond scope here... I do think if Apple did it right they could have a successful 'open OS' version that wouldn't reflect poorly on their fully turnkey solutions. That said - if Apple does things right, it's not needed as people will pay the Apple premium - but the damn hardware itself has to be what the people need and want. That's what's missing imho today...