why no surge in Texas?

[space-time]

when their governor fully opened the State a few weeks ago, media was worried there will be a surge. I just checked the Graphs and covid cases are going down in TX. Where is the surge?

[Sarcany]

This is what they're saying...

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coron...30594.html

A mix of vaccinations, continued mask wearing, people already having immunity and the weather warming up has slowed down the spread, said Diana Cervantes, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at UNT Health Science Center.

“I think they took some gambles and it paid off,” she said.

As of Friday morning, Texas had of its residents 16 and older and Tarrant County is approaching 1 million doses administered. Experts predict herd immunity by mid-June in North Texas.

Cervantes still advises caution as a surge can happen at any given time.

...Cervantes believes, in general, most people have taken the virus seriously and not ditched safety measures. If anything, lifting the mask mandate made people want to be safer. On March 10, people didn’t immediately take off the masks and go back to pre-pandemic times, Cervantes said. Most large businesses like Walmart, Target, Kroger, HEB and others are still requiring mask and other coronavirus protocols.

...Tarrant County and the city of Fort Worth have required masks in their buildings. Whitley believes people have grown accustomed to wearing masks and are making the right choice not only for themselves but for others.

“A vast majority of people have come around to believing that the masks make a difference,” Whitley said.


This is another interesting view:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/...ity-texas/

Just 19 percent of Texas residents are fully vaccinated, according to figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a lower share than all but six U.S. states. Health officials there have confirmed more than 2.4 million infections and counted an additional 400,000 “probable” virus cases. Almost 50,000 of those people have died, according to data gathered by The Washington Post.

The official number of people who have survived infection — about 2.77 million — plus the number inoculated — about 5.5 million — equals more than 8.27 million people with some form of immunity, or about 29 percent of Texas’s population.

However, there is a hidden variable that is crucial to this calculation: the number of people who have contracted the coronavirus but have not been formally counted — either because they were never tested or were never linked to a positive case.

It is impossible to know exactly what this number is, but researchers reckon that it’s much greater than what shows up on state data dashboards and the ubiquitous pandemic trackers. A team at Columbia University used a mathematical model to estimate the true scope of infections, and it found that by late January, 31 percent of Texans probably had contracted the virus.

This would mean at least 50 percent of residents have some sort of immunity...

But they warn that there are different types of immunity and some may be on a rapid wane. Combine that with an onslaught of variants and it looks like the 4th wave has been delayed in Texas, not avoided.

[space-time]

Interesting. Thanks

[NewtonMP2100]

....Texas....toast...

[sekker]

Austin and other cities have been very proactive, too.

[Speedy]

There was far better mask compliance in Texas when we departed in mid-March than there was in Minnesota when we returned. Not everyone is an idiot, only the politicians in charge.

[mrbigstuff]

I think it's a lot more complex than folks here who just see a red state and automatically predict how bad a possible outbreak will be because of X. The governor of TX may be a moron, but given the size of Texas and the lack of population density (the proximal type), I don't believe it's as simple as a casual observer would be led to believe. We don't have the data that will be studied in the coming years, we're in the middle of it now where not many conclusions can be reached.

[NewtonMP2100]

....blue......surge.....

[cbelt3]

simply ? Dumb Luck.

[Filliam H. Muffman]

They were behind other states in the waves. Give it four weeks.