Jeb! hanging by a thread

[pdq]

...not in money - as far as I know, he still has millions. But the way I read it, he just barely made the criteria for the upcoming main Fox Business News GOP debate.

USAToday wrote:
Citing criteria announced last month, Fox Business Network said that, "to qualify, a candidate needs to be either among the top six in an average of the five most recent national polls, or among the top five in an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire polls.

From RealClearPolitics:

Iowa (Quinnipiac): Cruz 29, Trump 31, Rubio 15, Carson 7, Christie 4, Bush 3, Paul 2, Huckabee 3, Kasich 2, Fiorina 1, Santorum 1

Bzzzt! Bush comes in tied for 6th, neck and neck with Huckabee (!)

New Hampshire (Monmouth): Trump 32, Rubio 12, Kasich 14, Cruz 14, Christie 8, Bush 4, Paul 4, Fiorina 5, Carson 3, Santorum 0, Huckabee 1

Bzzzt! Bush comes in tied for 7th, neck and neck with Paul.

National (IBD): Trump 34, Cruz 18, Rubio 9, Carson 8, Christie 4, Bush 4, Paul 3, Fiorina 2, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Graham, Santorum 0, Pataki

Ding! Bush slips in under the wire, coming in 6th by one percentage point.

Yeah, these are just single recent polls, not an average, but I'm not cherry-picking them. And yeah, these candidates go up and down, with former rising star Fiorina back down, and Carson falling badly in NH. But the latest Monmouth poll also puts Bush now holding a -8 favorable/unfavorable rating (the only "front runner" with negative numbers). And I think it's worth noting Bush doesn't get to 5% (traditional "major candidate" level) in any of the polls above.

No, I don't think he's gonna step down before Iowa or NH, but it's just striking to me how the prohibitive establishment favorite going in is now close to demotion to the "kid's table" debate. Unless some of these folks drop out and throw their support to Jeb, it's hard seeing him carry on past Super Tuesday. Nobody seems to like him that much.

[Speedy]

Next election the GOP will finally get the nomination process set to its true liking. They will base it on money raised. No real reason to base it on messy polling.

[SteveG]

I knew they didn't like him, but hanging??

[Speedy]

"initially, only six candidates were supposed to participate in the January debate based on polling, seven made the cut.
Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich were all named."

[hal]

Paul refuses to be relegated - boycotts debate

that'll work!

So the undercard will be Carly, Santorum and Huckebee - THAT should be a laugh riot!

[Octave Doctor]

Santorum still ignores the Google results?????? LOL, ha, ha.

[mrbigstuff]

Huckabee and Santorum are running for president?

[Ombligo]

Being from Florida, I would normally root for Jeb! to crash and burn. However given the nutcase alternatives, I find myself hoping he holds together for then the GOP finally comes to it senses.

I do not want to see Trump, Cruz, or Carson as the nominee - too much fear that something could go wrong and they win.

[Lemon Drop]

With 18 days to go to the start of primary season, Trump is now leading or tied in Iowa polls as Cruz continues a downward trend. Cruz is getting burned by the birther politics he tried on President Obama. He forgot that his base contains the people who worry about that stuff.

There is some question about whether Trump's supporters will show up to caucus, but local buzz says they intend to. But of course he doesn't really have to worry about winning Iowa, he has the money and momentum to move forward regardless. This makes him very different IMO from other candidates who have won Iowa and then crashed and burned later, such as Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee.

Trump has shown he can control the media and the message better than anyone running, including Hillary Clinton.

He also has wide leads in the next primary states: Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The GOP seems to be hoping that a thinning of the candidate herd will send enough supporters to Somebody Else to overtake Trump; we'll see how that goes.

[Lemon Drop]

.