05-25-2017, 08:50 PM
The Atlantic Ocean may spin up more than the usual number of tropical storms and hurricanes this year, according to a new outlook from government forecasters.
There is a 45 percent chance for an above-normal number of storms in the Atlantic Ocean, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration.
A 45 percent chance may seem low, but it is more likely than the other outcomes. There's a 35 percent chance for near-normal activity, but only 20 percent odds for a below-normal season.
That translates into a forecast for 11 to 17 tropical storms, and 5 to 9 would strengthen into hurricanes. A handful of storms — 2 to 4 — may reach major hurricane status with sustained winds stronger than 111 mph.
"It does not predict when, where and how these storms may hit," cautioned Gerry Bell, the lead forecaster for the seasonal outlook at NOAA. Their outlook was issued on Thursday, one week before the start of hurricane season on June 1.
Those ranges and probabilities reflect some natural uncertainty. Scientists look at several patterns and signals before making their call, and some show conflicting indications.
Ocean temperatures should be warmer than normal in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which could give extra fuel to storms. Additionally, any storms that develop may be less likely to be ripped apart by strong upper-level winds.
If an El Niño pattern develops in the Pacific Ocean, it could suppress how many storms develop in the Atlantic Ocean. An El Niño phase tends to make the tropical atmosphere a more hostile place for the thunderstorms that turn into hurricanes, but it won't prevent them entirely. Right now, its in a neutral state.
But an El Niño may or may not exist by the fall — the odds are nearly even for either outcome — and even if it did, it may be a weak one with relatively little influence on the Atlantic.
NOAA has been issuing their seasonal hurricane outlooks since 1998, and claims 70 percent accuracy at hitting those ranges.
http://www.richmond.com/weather/noaa-pre...e2156.html
Last year, NOAA's outlook called for near-normal activity and 10 to 16 named storms. The season ended up producing 15 storms, and the strongest and deadliest was Hurricane Matthew.