Uh Oh today's body count for my home county

[SteveG]

the worst is yet to come


be it ever so deadly, there's no place like this.

[Don C]

Ouch! I think we have one deceased in our small county. Gonna try real hard to not be #2.

[Sarcany]

Remember: Stats lag about two weeks.

You're seeing numbers from March.

[NewtonMP2100]

....a death count....????

[space-time]

Sarcany wrote:
Remember: Stats lag about two weeks.

You're seeing numbers from March.

you mean these people were infected about two weeks ago? yes

or that they died two weeks ago? I doubt it, I think the statistics are up to date.

[rgG]

space-time wrote:
[quote=Sarcany]
Remember: Stats lag about two weeks.

You're seeing numbers from March.

you mean these people were infected about two weeks ago? yes

or that they died two weeks ago? I doubt it, I think the statistics are up to date.
Yeah, I think the death tolls are about the only real time stats we can trust.

[Sarcany]

rgG wrote:
[quote=space-time]
[quote=Sarcany]
Remember: Stats lag about two weeks.

You're seeing numbers from March.

you mean these people were infected about two weeks ago? yes

or that they died two weeks ago? I doubt it, I think the statistics are up to date.
Yeah, I think the death tolls are about the only real time stats we can trust.
Nope. The two week lag in reporting test results implies a similar lag in reporting many deaths from the virus.

Per CDC guidance, while it is permissible to report a COVID-19 death without testing, "where possible, conduct appropriate laboratory testing using guidance provided by CDC or local health authorities." There are a lot of new deaths from "pneumonia" and "cardiac arrest." Those are not reported as COVID-19 deaths because the other symptoms didn't correspond perfectly and there was no test performed. Where testing is performed, it can take as much as 10 days (often less, but Doctors are still reporting as much as a 10-day lag) for the results to come back and then those results have to make it through the bureaucracy to get bundled into the stats.

So, it's appropriate to assume that the death stats are lagging by about two weeks.

This is one reason why they say that we won't know that we reached the "peak" until we're two weeks past it.

[M A V I C]

At last check here, they're not testing post mortem. So a death has to have been in a confirmed case while they were alive. That should mean the numbers are faster, but lower than reality.

[space-time]

when NYC announced the first death, it showed up in stats the same day or the very next day.

[Sarcany]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...is/609193/

Though the problem is national in scope, California is its known epicenter. Over the past week, the most populous state in the union—where the country’s first case of community transmission was identified, in late February—has managed to complete an average of only 2,136 tests each day, far fewer than other similarly populous states, according to our tracking data. Yet California also reports that more than 57,400 people have pending test results. Tens of thousands of Californians have been swabbed for the virus, but their samples have not yet been examined in a lab...

...On the day of Trump’s CDC briefing, the country had conducted perhaps 2,000 tests total, according to our investigation for The Atlantic. Twenty-six days have elapsed since Azar first promised that “1 million tests” would soon come online, and 17 days have passed since his deadline for “up to 4 million tests” becoming available. Yet just today the U.S. passed 1 million cumulative people tested for the coronavirus. It is a major accomplishment and a testament to the thousands of labs and their workers across the country. But it is far short of the timeline that officials promised.

And while testing has ramped up in absolute volume—the country is now doing roughly 100,000 tests a day—the United States still lags behind other hard-hit countries in per capita testing. In Italy and South Korea, roughly 800 of every 100,000 people have been tested for the virus. But in the United States, only about 320 of every 100,000 have been tested. Testing is also wildly uneven among states. While New York, Washington, and Massachusetts have experienced large outbreaks, they’ve also tested extensively. But in large states like Georgia and Texas (and of course California), the number of tests that have been completed remains troublingly small.

...California’s reporting idiosyncrasy likely reflects reality better than other states’ reporting. For example, Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker tweeted yesterday that private-lab results in his state are taking “4-7 days and sometimes even up to 10 days.”