Any supply chain wonks out there? Explain it to me like I’m six years old, 2 months + in, why haven’t supply chains made

[Blankity Blank]

I’m not talking about the super critical and complex stuff like N95 masks and ventilators. The basics.

I get it, people went bugnuts crazy. But not even a little lessening in the drought of TP? Purell? Lysol spray still a ‘bargain’ at $8 a can and you’ll get it when you get it delivery?

Stores seem to have kicked in with the purchase limits to at least look like they’re aware of hoarding. What gives?

[deckeda]

I can only guess that manufacturing was never setup to ramp up beyond what was needed for the new buying pattern. You can find stories of TP makers working overtime.

Another challenge is shipping and distribution. They too would have to increase their hours and capacities.

The nature of hoarding means manufacturing by definition can't ever meet demand. That said, GeorgiaPacific says residents are using some 40% more TP because they can't use it at work or at restaurants etc now.

[GGD]

Cases of water seems to have recovered, 4 weeks ago when I went to Costco it was limit 1, two weeks ago there was no limit. Still haven't seen hand sanitize.

[NewtonMP2100]

....still no sightings of.....hand sanitizer, toilet paper, paper towels, lysol/clorox/sanitizing wipes.......

[Filliam H. Muffman]

A huge part of it is commercial/institutional versus retail packaging. I am pretty sure there is plenty of TP available if you are willing to buy a dozen 2,000 ft rolls. It's the same thing with milk that used to go to schools. I am sure you could find a supplier if you would be willing to sign a contract to buy 500,000 half pint cartons of chocolate milk every week for the next 12 months.

This fortnight's Costco board of out of stock.

[Sarcany]

My understanding is that except for the surge in mid-March, it hasn't been about hoarding.

Demand for consumer-grade TP is up 40%. People are working from home and eating at home and using the john at home.

Resources for stuff like TP are limited. Demand is ordinarily seasonal and measurable (roughly 141 "standard" rolls per year per person which works out to around 50 "normal" sized rolls per person) and you can't just double production out of nowhere for a 40% rise in demand. Long before this coronavirus they were already running most factories well into the night if not 24hrs.

The facilities were split between consumer and commercial TP (which are two very different products) and commercial lines can't just be converted to consumer lines. Commercial rolls are bigger and won't fit the dispenser in a home.

There's also a growing problem of source-material. The lumber industry is slow due to lack of construction and paper mills work off of the wood chips from lumber mills. The mills are running extra shifts where they can (supposedly focusing on the products that are most easily produced, so your triple-ply ultra-soft plush quilted mega-rolls may be hard to come by), but it all comes to a stop if they can't get materials.

And there are logistics issues due to reduced transportation resources. Truck stops are closed. Regional warehouses are on reduced staff.

The virus takes its toll on production. Proctor and Gamble revealed recently that their largest plant in PA had to shut down equipment for cleaning after a handful of employees tested positive.

Finally, there are labeling issues. It turns out that stuff meant for consumer sales need specific labels/barcodes and stuff made for bulk commercial use will have the wrong labels. Can't just slap a new label on a few million palettes of toilet paper to sell through grocery chains, even if they'd fit the dispensers.

Now here's the kicker: The production lines are already working at max capacity. So long as people are isolating at home, this may go on for a long time to come.

[pRICE cUBE]

Unprecedented event for many people + Survival instinct + Panic (under preparedness) + no purchasing limit + raw material from China (not being made, factories shut down) = Current shortages


I probably left out some things but those are the ones off the top of my head.

[Speedy]

Yes, a lot of manufacturers will shut down once their employees become sick and they have no means to test.

[Racer X]

Everyone who wants a test can be tested miley-laughing001:

[Ombligo]

Additionally with states and federal leaders making noise about reopening everything soon is not helping. Manufacturers are not going to change production lines or invest in expansion only to see demand falls upon reopening in a few weeks.