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Yeah, I know. Don't try to catch a falling knife and all that jazz.
I'm considering adding to my position, but I want to be near the bottom when I buy.
I know world politics are having a huge effect on the market right now. Seems to me this is just a blip on the radar and some pretty nice bargains are appearing for the investing crowd.
What does YOUR crystal ball say? Buy? Sell? Hold? Jump off a high building? :dunno:
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Everything’s a gift right now. It may go lower and it may not. Like you alluded to, there’s no way to predict the bottom. Everyone would like to buy near the bottom. But in that hesitation the vast majority will miss getting in on a good deal. If it were me and I had deployable cash right now, I’d be going all in.
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aapl is unique - there hasn't been a 20%+ correction in a while. THe easiest place to point to is the recent $141.50 low from last sept, but really... who knows...
a brief glimpse at the chart looks like the last +20% drop was march 2020 and dropped down to $57.31... that seems unlikely, but who knows.
A real war in europe especially with China hitching to Russia... it could get really ugly and not just for aapl or the stock markets.
What if China decides to boot evil foreigners?
My secret fear is that China will play hardball with Apple one day and tell them to either get out or move the company to China.
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It and most other stocks will fall until the Ukraine situation is concluded one way or the other.
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No one can consistently predict the bottom. But we are at historical lows percentage wise (depending on the exact metric maybe more, maybe less). When certain funds or stocks start hitting the 50% mark, it's always a good time to buy. You're not going to care about missing out on a few percentage points when it bounces back in a few months or a few years. Most people I know hesitate and then miss out all together because as things start climbing, they think that they missed the bottom, and so lose interest. And the cycle keeps on repeating. People think they’ve missed out on the bottom, and so tell themselves they’ll wait for the next bottom. And so on, and so on.
It's like when we bought Tesla back in 2016. We didn't get in on the bottom. It had already 10x at that point. But we knew it was still at a sale price then. Kinda like it is now. To this date, almost none of our friends and family have bought Tesla. And right now it's on sale too.
Opportunities like this are rare in an investment career. Dotcom bubble, 2008 financial crisis, Covid, now this Russia-Ukraine thing.
We are tapped out, otherwise we'd be going all in.
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I'm going broke buying TSLA. Everytime it dips I buy 1-2 more shares. I started out with about 30 shares of SolarCity and ended up with 4 shares of TSLA. It has since split and I've added to my position multiple times.
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Going broke saving money!
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ztirffritz wrote:
I'm going broke buying TSLA. Everytime it dips I buy 1-2 more shares. I started out with about 30 shares of SolarCity and ended up with 4 shares of TSLA. It has since split and I've added to my position multiple times.
miley-laughing001:
Seriously though, I can almost smell the fear out there. What's my favorite Warren Buffet Quote?
"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
Some great thoughts in the thread. I appreciate your participation. I may jump in tomorrow for my first dip into 2022!
