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Deal would have Pentagon supply Poland with F-16s (to replace the ones they send?)
White House currently working out details. Ultimately it's up to Poland.
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If Ukraine is "Sudetenland" then Poland isn't "Poland" in this scenario.
Moldova is an easy target after Ukraine with historic ties to the old Russian empire to justify an invasion, and Lukashenko has already indicated that it's next on the list. (This might have been a deliberate ruse, but he's really not that bright.)
From there, he goes after Southern Romania and Bulgaria for control over the Black Sea, and if we continue to roll over without a fight then Russia has their choice of a half-dozen different nations after that, or they sit tight for awhile and rake in money by controlling all of the shipping in the region.
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Romania and Bulgaria are part of NATO. If Putin attacks a NATO country and NATO does not respond, then we are in big trouble.
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gadje wrote:
Romania and Bulgaria are part of NATO. If Putin attacks a NATO country and NATO does not respond, then we are in big trouble.
Ah, but what if he just blocks the ports to protect Russian ships?
And then takes the ports because insurrectionists and traffickers are using them?
And then occupies the nearby cities to make sure that those troublemakers don't mess with the operations of the ports?
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Poland is already sending their Mig29s to Ukraine. The F16s are replacing those. Maybe they are sending even more.
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Sending planes is mostly symbolic if there isn't some sort of capability to destroy/suppress S-400 surface-to-air systems. 17 mile long convoy's don't have to worry too much about an A10 wiping them out if there are enough modern antiaircraft systems nearby.
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Pootin would be a madman to have any issues with other nations supplying weapons to the Ukrainian resistance. It has been a decades long practice, especially between the Russians and the US. They did this to us in Vietnam. We did this to them in Afghanistan. Then they did it back to us in Afghanistan and Iraq. And so on and so on. For Pootin to have a problem with this all of a sudden would be another qualifier to his madness.