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Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - Printable Version

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Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - RgrF - 06-29-2016

...as of today.


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - cbelt3 - 06-29-2016

Too much for my comfort.


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - bfd - 06-29-2016

Need to keep working even harder to get his chances down to ZERO


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - Filliam H. Muffman - 06-29-2016

bfd wrote:
Need to keep working even harder to get his all Republican's chances down to ZERO



Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - freeradical - 06-29-2016

Nate Silver, like 99% of the chattering class, didn't think that Trump would even have the remotest chance of being where he is today. He completely blew it. I no longer believe anything that these partisans say about him.


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - sekker - 06-30-2016

freeradical wrote:
Nate Silver, like 99% of the chattering class, didn't think that Trump would even have the remotest chance of being where he is today. He completely blew it. I no longer believe anything that these partisans say about him.

He has completely discussed how and why he missed Trump, who is a Black Swan,


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - $tevie - 06-30-2016

Still, it's tough to believe ANY prognostication after the incredible mess the pollsters and data crunchers made of things during the primaries.


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - vision63 - 06-30-2016

Trust nothing. Full 50 State execution 100% Full throttle.


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - pdq - 06-30-2016

$tevie wrote:
Still, it's tough to believe ANY prognostication after the incredible mess the pollsters and data crunchers made of things during the primaries.

Well, yeah, but they were in pundit/opinion mode then, and disregarded the data (showing Trump leading). Now they're chastened, and back to dealing with better data.

In general, I think you dismiss Nate Silver at your own peril, whether it's good news or bad.


Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - Ombligo - 06-30-2016

The more the pollsters say Clinton is going to win in a landslide, the more her weak and/or lazy support will not bother to vote. And Dems are notoriously lazy voters.

It still may not give Trump a chance, but it will destroy the down ticket races and those are important.