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+--- Thread: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver (/showthread.php?tid=192405)
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Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - RgrF - 06-29-2016
...as of today.
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - cbelt3 - 06-29-2016
Too much for my comfort.
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - bfd - 06-29-2016
Need to keep working even harder to get his chances down to ZERO…
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - Filliam H. Muffman - 06-29-2016
bfd wrote:
Need to keep working even harder to gethisall Republican's chances down to ZERO…
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - freeradical - 06-29-2016
Nate Silver, like 99% of the chattering class, didn't think that Trump would even have the remotest chance of being where he is today. He completely blew it. I no longer believe anything that these partisans say about him.
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - sekker - 06-30-2016
freeradical wrote:
Nate Silver, like 99% of the chattering class, didn't think that Trump would even have the remotest chance of being where he is today. He completely blew it. I no longer believe anything that these partisans say about him.
He has completely discussed how and why he missed Trump, who is a Black Swan,
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - $tevie - 06-30-2016
Still, it's tough to believe ANY prognostication after the incredible mess the pollsters and data crunchers made of things during the primaries.
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - vision63 - 06-30-2016
Trust nothing. Full 50 State execution 100% Full throttle.
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - pdq - 06-30-2016
$tevie wrote:
Still, it's tough to believe ANY prognostication after the incredible mess the pollsters and data crunchers made of things during the primaries.
Well, yeah, but they were in pundit/opinion mode then, and disregarded the data (showing Trump leading). Now they're chastened, and back to dealing with better data.
In general, I think you dismiss Nate Silver at your own peril, whether it's good news or bad.
Re: Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver - Ombligo - 06-30-2016
The more the pollsters say Clinton is going to win in a landslide, the more her weak and/or lazy support will not bother to vote. And Dems are notoriously lazy voters.
It still may not give Trump a chance, but it will destroy the down ticket races and those are important.