Trump has a 20% chance of winning - Nate Silver

[RgrF]

...as of today.

[cbelt3]

Too much for my comfort.

[bfd]

Need to keep working even harder to get his chances down to ZERO…

[Filliam H. Muffman]

bfd wrote:
Need to keep working even harder to get his all Republican's chances down to ZERO…

[freeradical]

Nate Silver, like 99% of the chattering class, didn't think that Trump would even have the remotest chance of being where he is today. He completely blew it. I no longer believe anything that these partisans say about him.

[sekker]

freeradical wrote:
Nate Silver, like 99% of the chattering class, didn't think that Trump would even have the remotest chance of being where he is today. He completely blew it. I no longer believe anything that these partisans say about him.

He has completely discussed how and why he missed Trump, who is a Black Swan,

[$tevie]

Still, it's tough to believe ANY prognostication after the incredible mess the pollsters and data crunchers made of things during the primaries.

[vision63]

Trust nothing. Full 50 State execution 100% Full throttle.

[pdq]

$tevie wrote:
Still, it's tough to believe ANY prognostication after the incredible mess the pollsters and data crunchers made of things during the primaries.

Well, yeah, but they were in pundit/opinion mode then, and disregarded the data (showing Trump leading). Now they're chastened, and back to dealing with better data.

In general, I think you dismiss Nate Silver at your own peril, whether it's good news or bad.

[Ombligo]

The more the pollsters say Clinton is going to win in a landslide, the more her weak and/or lazy support will not bother to vote. And Dems are notoriously lazy voters.

It still may not give Trump a chance, but it will destroy the down ticket races and those are important.