03-05-2022, 04:15 AM
It will be interesting to see if this changes, but it seems we're (western democracies) okay if Ukraine is lost to Russia. I do think this is more a European concern than a US one. We're all affected but they are neighbors.
To engage is to make one very specific bet - that Russia won't use its nukes. Even if the risk of that of happening is low, the downside is just way too large.
The current bet is that sanctions and some sort of prolonged battle in the Ukraine will backfire on Putin. Or maybe only sanctions in the long run. Could we cut ourselves off their energy supplies? Would someone else step in buy it? For market rate?
It will be interesting to see what kind of military build up will occur in Europe. Its practically guaranteed at this point.
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We don't fully know Putin's intentions. Part of it is the eastward expansion of NATO. There's also a Russian perspective that Ukraine is really just an accessory to Russia, rather than some of its own. Thats a reason for believing this is only about Ukraine.
To engage is to make one very specific bet - that Russia won't use its nukes. Even if the risk of that of happening is low, the downside is just way too large.
The current bet is that sanctions and some sort of prolonged battle in the Ukraine will backfire on Putin. Or maybe only sanctions in the long run. Could we cut ourselves off their energy supplies? Would someone else step in buy it? For market rate?
It will be interesting to see what kind of military build up will occur in Europe. Its practically guaranteed at this point.
---
We don't fully know Putin's intentions. Part of it is the eastward expansion of NATO. There's also a Russian perspective that Ukraine is really just an accessory to Russia, rather than some of its own. Thats a reason for believing this is only about Ukraine.