When is the U.S. led EU/NATO coalition gonna get involved in kicking Ruskie booty outa Ukraine?

[mattkime]

Tiangou wrote:
Russian citizens don't need Mastercard. Or Disney+.

People adapt.

Russians are basically being kicked out of the modern world. Over what? Why is this worth it to them?

[steve...]

Racer X wrote:
Poland just gave a bunch of MiG-29s to the Ukraine. The Ukrainian pilots are picking them up now.

That 40 mile convoy of stalled Russian war machines looks like a good place to start.

[Tiangou]

mattkime wrote:
[quote=Tiangou]
Russian citizens don't need Mastercard. Or Disney+.

People adapt.

Russians are basically being kicked out of the modern world. Over what? Why is this worth it to them?
They've been told that it's the right thing to do.

And it's hard to beat Russian pride for getting sh!t done. Maybe not done neatly. Maybe not done well. But it gets done. Ethically... meh. But when it's done, it KNOWS its done.

[kj]

Tiangou wrote:
[quote=Carnos Jax]
[quote=Tiangou]
[quote=Carnos Jax]
NATO nor the U.S. will have to get involved. At this point Putin is a dead man walking. He has overplayed his hand. There is no outcome from here that allows Putin to remain alive or in power...

...Except if he does. Both.
?

Are you saying he can remain both alive and in power? If so, how is that possible without him pulling out of Ukraine?
Russia can survive sanctions.

Russia's banks are barely bothered by the international boycott. The ruble is still trading on currency exchanges. India and China are happy to do business with them.

Russian citizens don't need Mastercard. Or Disney+.

People adapt.

All Putin has to do is steadily keep up his assault on Ukraine and wait until the news cycle turns. Then he'll have Ukraine with barely a headline and few protests.

And when winter comes, Europe will be begging him for natural gas. All but the most meaningless of sanctions lifted before he'll come to the table.

That's the scenario he's angling for.

Who on our side is willing to escalate, to derail that plan?
I agree, it's inevitable. I think the world will wish we'd done more, but it isn't going to happen for Ukraine. Why wouldn't he hit another non-NATO country next? No one is going to do anything that matters to him. Putin knows how to survive when people want him dead, or he wouldn't be around.

[mattkime]

Tiangou wrote: They've been told that it's the right thing to do.

I have no doubt some Russians will go along with that, but not everyone.

Its one thing to lie to people when they're quickly getting wealthier and it quite another in economic free fall.

Boys are going to come home in body bags and their mothers will want to know why.

[Carnos Jax]

kj wrote:
[quote=Tiangou]
[quote=Carnos Jax]
[quote=Tiangou]
[quote=Carnos Jax]
NATO nor the U.S. will have to get involved. At this point Putin is a dead man walking. He has overplayed his hand. There is no outcome from here that allows Putin to remain alive or in power...

...Except if he does. Both.
?

Are you saying he can remain both alive and in power? If so, how is that possible without him pulling out of Ukraine?
Russia can survive sanctions.

Russia's banks are barely bothered by the international boycott. The ruble is still trading on currency exchanges. India and China are happy to do business with them.

Russian citizens don't need Mastercard. Or Disney+.

People adapt.

All Putin has to do is steadily keep up his assault on Ukraine and wait until the news cycle turns. Then he'll have Ukraine with barely a headline and few protests.

And when winter comes, Europe will be begging him for natural gas. All but the most meaningless of sanctions lifted before he'll come to the table.

That's the scenario he's angling for.

Who on our side is willing to escalate, to derail that plan?
I agree, it's inevitable. I think the world will wish we'd done more, but it isn't going to happen for Ukraine. Why wouldn't he hit another non-NATO country next? No one is going to do anything that matters to him. Putin knows how to survive when people want him dead, or he wouldn't be around.
I believe y'all are underestimating the tolerance of the Russian people as well the Russian economy to these sanctions. You make a good point though if this drags on until next winter, the west will compromise for the sake of gas.

[btfc]

It’s not the average Russian citizen that will dump him, it is the oligarchs that have enabled him and kept him in power for all these years. If they turn on him, he’s toast.


‘ China not emerging as lifeline for sanction-slammed Russian economy ‘

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/202...t-ukraine/

[deckeda]

Let’s give the sanctions some time. They’re not a little thing here.

[August West]

Putin has jailed Oligarchs, seized their wealth, and assassinated others who stand against him. He holds the levers of state against internal dissent. As much as we might wishfully consider him toast, there are too many moving parts. His resources and power offer him many supporters, domestic and foreign.

[Carnos Jax]

^^^No doubt, that's why he's been in power so long. However, he's showing signs he's mentally losing it as well has having ineffective information and advice. Things aren't going as well as he'd hoped for if the intelligence is accurate. Putin may be a victim of his own ruthlessness, surrounded in the end by yes men, who have reinforced his straying from a rational path. If his only remaining path taking Russia and the world down, I would think enough in his inner circle and power structure would intervene. I don't think Putin has the time some believe he has.