War in Ukraine

[Spock]

special wrote:
Poland and Finland? I would think they would go after the 3 Baltic countries first.

No, Georgia and Moldova are next on his list, neither of them are NATO members.

[dk62]

Spock wrote:
[quote=special]
Poland and Finland? I would think they would go after the 3 Baltic countries first.

No, Georgia and Moldova are next on his list, neither of them are NATO members.
This. Primarily Moldova, he has Georgia more or less under control. He is not ever going to go after NATO countries, regardless of sensationalistic press reports amplifying marginal loudmouths in Russia, or alarmists in countries begging for more military aid and shoring up their internal political support.

[Acer]

dk62 wrote:
[quote=Spock]
[quote=special]
Poland and Finland? I would think they would go after the 3 Baltic countries first.

No, Georgia and Moldova are next on his list, neither of them are NATO members.
This. Primarily Moldova, he has Georgia more or less under control. He is not ever going to go after NATO countries, regardless of sensationalistic press reports amplifying marginal loudmouths in Russia, or alarmists in countries begging for more military aid and shoring up their internal political support.
So, little bit of Ukraine, a slice of Moldova, and then he'll be satisfied to control himself?

[dk62]

He will be controlled by not wanting to be humiliated/annihilated by NATO.

[Ted King]

dk62 wrote:
He will be controlled by not wanting to be humiliated/annihilated by NATO.

There's a reason Finland and Sweden joined NATO after Putin invaded Ukraine - they trust the strength of the NATO alliance when facing Putin. I think their trust is well placed - unless Trump is elected.

[Rolando]

I dunno. Zelenskyy's last act in office might be to peace treaty ceding the east and Crimea, then immediately sign up for NATO.
France is ready to intervene if NATO won't.
https://youtu.be/CC9QFwSXRLg?si=lEHDX3yNe7cw-985

[vision63]

Rolando wrote:
I dunno. Zelenskyy's last act in office might be to peace treaty ceding the east and Crimea, then immediately sign up for NATO.
France is ready to intervene if NATO won't.
https://youtu.be/CC9QFwSXRLg?si=lEHDX3yNe7cw-985

Would be interesting. But, I don't think Russia is going to be allowed to keep any inch of it. We shall see.

[dk62]

vision63 wrote:
[quote=Rolando]
I dunno. Zelenskyy's last act in office might be to peace treaty ceding the east and Crimea, then immediately sign up for NATO.
France is ready to intervene if NATO won't.
https://youtu.be/CC9QFwSXRLg?si=lEHDX3yNe7cw-985

Would be interesting. But, I don't think Russia is going to be allowed to keep any inch of it. We shall see.
Interesting question. Crimea actually overwhelmingly (>80%) supports the secession, according to Western polling. Donbas and Luhansk do not (~30% for secession), despite the results of the Russian "referendum," at least not as whole regions (some pockets do, but there is little to no international precedent of non-administrative regions seceding). So a realistic outcome would be to cede Crimea to Russia, but not the east. Or do another, internationally monitored referendum. But I doubt that this would be agreed to by the West, considering the positioning to date.

[Ted King]

dk62 wrote:
[quote=vision63]
[quote=Rolando]
I dunno. Zelenskyy's last act in office might be to peace treaty ceding the east and Crimea, then immediately sign up for NATO.
France is ready to intervene if NATO won't.
https://youtu.be/CC9QFwSXRLg?si=lEHDX3yNe7cw-985

Would be interesting. But, I don't think Russia is going to be allowed to keep any inch of it. We shall see.
Interesting question. Crimea actually overwhelmingly (>80%) supports the secession, according to Western polling. Donbas and Luhansk do not (~30% for secession), despite the results of the Russian "referendum," at least not as whole regions (some pockets do, but there is little to no international precedent of non-administrative regions seceding). So a realistic outcome would be to cede Crimea to Russia, but not the east. Or do another, internationally monitored referendum. But I doubt that this would be agreed to by the West, considering the positioning to date.
I think it all depends on what happens on the ground. Who takes ground and who loses ground. How much ground is given up. How strategic the ground is.

It is in the realm of possibility that Ukraine will win back all of its territory on the ground. Yay.

It is much more likely that Russia will push Ukraine way back and maybe to the point of collapse with all ground essentially given up. That would be a horrible, horrible thing.

It may be more likely than those two that some kind of stalemate develops as Russia has early success but loses momentum as they move into western Ukraine. How long do things grind on with piles of people killed and no major ground gained or lost? Would both parties become exhausted enough at some point to accept drawing the line where it is at the moment and stop shooting?

[mrbigstuff]

just a footnote to this conversation that I find it continually perplexing how this country is fighting a war, and parts of the populace are still going about their daily routines, that exports are still getting out and that the president of the country is able to fly to different countries.