Gainers and losers of congressional districts: 2020 census numbers coming this week

[sekker]

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132...ouse-seats

[Ted King]

Lemon Drop wrote:
The game is to hold what we've got and win more southern suburbs.

Yeah, I think that retaining control of the House will depend on how Democrats do in the suburbs if they hold onto the weight of votes they got out of the cities the last couple of elections. And probably the southern suburbs will play a big role. From what I've read of the demographics revealed in the last census, it appears that there has been a positive net migration into several southern states from northern states and California. That is, from more liberal states. My hunch is that the large chunk of that migration is of college educated individuals (or at least disproportionately more) - more liberal leaning in general. And I also have a hunch that like a lot of college educated people with families, they are moving to suburbs around southern cities.

One of the major tactics that Republicans have used to dilute the inner city vote is to draw Congressional boundaries where the city vote is paired up with big suburbs that tended to have at least economically conservative leanings. But if the suburbs are getting somewhat more liberal, then it becomes more difficult for Republicans to use that tactic as effectively.

But now there are things like A.I. programs that can ferret out the optimum Congressional districts for Republicans if they have the power to draw them, so, I think in a lot of states - especially some southern states - where Republicans control the Congressional district boundaries, they could very well have enough leverage to gain a smattering of seats. Unfortunately, a smattering is all they need to take back the House.

[Ombligo]

Texas +2 seats
Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon will each gain one seat in Congress.

California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will all lose a seat.


Don't forget each seat represents an electoral vote (Trump would have had a net gain of three votes).

[RgrF]

California can well afford to cede Devin Nunes` seat to Texas. Too bad we cant have him go with the seat. If we were true to original intent we'd today have about 4600 Congress-critters - that would be fun, the roll calls alone....

[Speedy]

Ombligo wrote:
Texas +2 seats
Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon will each gain one seat in Congress.

California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will all lose a seat.


Don't forget each seat represents an electoral vote (Trump would have had a net gain of three votes).

“Biden defeated Trump by a margin of 306 to 232 electors in 2020. If the result was repeated in 2024 under the new apportionment, with the Democratic and Republican candidates winning same states, the Democrat would still win comfortably, by a margin of 303 to 235.”

[macphanatic]

vision63 wrote:
We should re-do the entire Census process considering the hijinks of the previous administration designed to influence the outcomes.

If we did, NY and California might loose another. The exodus out of California and NY has increased. The wealthy are leaving before the new personal income tax increases go into effect. In NY, a lot of the wealthy have left in the last few months. Look at what has happened to home sales in the nicer parts of Florida. Prices have skyrocketed. Same has happened in parts of Texas.

Many of my colleagues have moved out of the 5 boroughs to places that are cheaper to live and have lower income tax rates.

The trend is continuing as people are looking to take their capital gains now before the expected significant increase. NYC is looking at a significant short fall in personal income tax revenue. The trickle down is going to be bad.

[Lemon Drop]

macphanatic wrote:
[quote=vision63]
We should re-do the entire Census process considering the hijinks of the previous administration designed to influence the outcomes.

If we did, NY and California might loose another. The exodus out of California and NY has increased. The wealthy are leaving before the new personal income tax increases go into effect. In NY, a lot of the wealthy have left in the last few months. Look at what has happened to home sales in the nicer parts of Florida. Prices have skyrocketed. Same has happened in parts of Texas.

Many of my colleagues have moved out of the 5 boroughs to places that are cheaper to live and have lower income tax rates.

The trend is continuing as people are looking to take their capital gains now before the expected significant increase. NYC is looking at a significant short fall in personal income tax revenue. The trickle down is going to be bad.
My entire life people have been forecasting the downfall of New York City. And it only grows in importance as the world capital of business and culture. And gets more expensive.

I love the Big Apple!

[Lemon Drop]

Ted King wrote:
[quote=Lemon Drop]
The game is to hold what we've got and win more southern suburbs.

Yeah, I think that retaining control of the House will depend on how Democrats do in the suburbs if they hold onto the weight of votes they got out of the cities the last couple of elections. And probably the southern suburbs will play a big role. From what I've read of the demographics revealed in the last census, it appears that there has been a positive net migration into several southern states from northern states and California. That is, from more liberal states. My hunch is that the large chunk of that migration is of college educated individuals (or at least disproportionately more) - more liberal leaning in general. And I also have a hunch that like a lot of college educated people with families, they are moving to suburbs around southern cities.

One of the major tactics that Republicans have used to dilute the inner city vote is to draw Congressional boundaries where the city vote is paired up with big suburbs that tended to have at least economically conservative leanings. But if the suburbs are getting somewhat more liberal, then it becomes more difficult for Republicans to use that tactic as effectively.

But now there are things like A.I. programs that can ferret out the optimum Congressional districts for Republicans if they have the power to draw them, so, I think in a lot of states - especially some southern states - where Republicans control the Congressional district boundaries, they could very well have enough leverage to gain a smattering of seats. Unfortunately, a smattering is all they need to take back the House.
Dave Wasserman at Cook political report is one of the top experts in redistricting, he just released an analysis of these census results that predicts a 3 to 4 seat net gain for the GOP, on redistricting alone.
That does put up a big challenge for Dems but as Georgia showed, changing demographics are hard for even the most entrenched conservative machines to overcome.