Depressed? You want depressed? Meet George Will

[Gutenberg]

Yep, it sure did, and it did not vote Democratic that year.

[mikeylikesit]

I know. We did though.

[Doc]

I put $5 bucks on Virginia going blue this year, too.

[vision63]

These scenarios would put a long-term smile on my face, but I'll remain tense until the day after the election.

[Gutenberg]

A $100 bet would get you $770 on McCain; you would take home $870 if you won. A $700 bet on Obama would get you $100, so you would take home $800 if you won.

http://www.1800-sports.com/presidential-...odds.shtml

[mikeylikesit]

The only real problem here is that if you collect on the McCain bet you still lose more than you could possibly win.

[AlphaDog]

mikeylikesit wrote:
The only real problem here is that if you collect on the McCain bet you still lose more than you could possibly win.

Amen!

[MacGurl]

This is a nice synopsis from http://www.electoral-vote.com/ -

The latest national polls put Obama ahead by 7.8 points nationally. The Washington Post notes that in the most recent 159 national polls, Obama has led them all. He also leads in all the states John Kerry won in 2004, giving him a base of 252 electoral votes. He also has led all year in Iowa and New Mexico, bringing his total to 264. Thus he needs to find five or six electoral votes in states Bush won in 2004. Today's polls suggest Florida, Ohio, and Virginia as good hunting grounds, as he leads in all of them. In addition, he has led for weeks in Colorado and is effectively tied in North Carolina and Indiana. He even has a shot at North Dakota and Montana. McCain has to win all of them. If we assume that all eight of these states are 50-50, then McCain has to flip a coin and get heads eight times in a row. The chances of this are 1 in 256. But it is worse than that since a number of these states, especially Colorado, look a lot worse for McCain than 50-50.

Kathy

[mattkime]

Gutenberg wrote:
So you are thinking Indiana and North Dakota on top of what's already blue, mattkime?

its not hard to imagine if you take into account new/unlikely voters coming out for obama and frustrated mccain supporters staying home.

as a dem i know thats being optimistic. we'll see what happens.

[lafinfil]

mattkime wrote:
[quote=Gutenberg]
So you are thinking Indiana and North Dakota on top of what's already blue, mattkime?

its not hard to imagine if you take into account new/unlikely voters coming out for obama and frustrated mccain supporters staying home.

as a dem i know thats being optimistic. we'll see what happens.
I've posted before some observations on early voting and here's todays from Indiana

We are a dead heat - the first time in 40 years that the Dems even challenged.

In a city of about 100K we have had more early votes than the entire total votes in the last municipal election.
The County Clerk is estimating a 70% turn out this year - simply amazing.

I was at at a grocery store today that is an early vote center. I've been there several times the last week
at different times on different days and there have been an average of 40 people waiting to vote every time.
I was there about 5:00 this afternoon and the line to vote was out the door - 80 to 100 people I'd guess
and more then half of them appeared to be under 25 years old - 30 at the most.

We may go blue for the first time in my voting life.